By Sameer Khan for TwoCircles.net,
Emergence of All Indian Majlis-e-ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has ruffled the feathers of many political parties in India. Once restricted to the limits of old city of Hyderabad, the party under the leadership of 46 year old, London educated, Barrister Asaduddin Owaisi has now emerged as main contender for the Indian Muslims votes much beyond its traditional bastion of Hyderabad.
Asaduddin Owaisi and his brother Akbaruddin Owaisi came into the headlines and under criticism from many quarters due to the infamous speech of younger brother Akbar. The elder brother Asaduddin Owaisi has been a prominent figure in Delhi politics over the years with his support to the UPA government and his cordial relationship with Andhra Congress Government under late Rajshekhar Reddy.
MIM Press Conference announcing decision to participate in Bihar Assembly Election.
What really set the cat among the pigeons mainly for the Congress and other so called secular parties that have been traditionally receiving Muslim votes over the years was the spectacular performance of AIMIM in Maharashtra Assembly elections. While Congress party and other opponents have since been accusing the AIMIM of dividing secular votes and there may be some instances of division of votes but the allegation is not entirely true.
The fact is that AIMIM only fought 24 seats in Maharashtra, mainly from Muslim dominated constituencies out of which, it won 2 and lost 2 with narrow margin. The two winning MLA of AIMIM, the seat won by former journalist Imtiaz Jaleel from Aurangabad Central won was previously held by an Independent MLA. The second winning MLA advocate Waris Pathan won from Byculla constituency which was held by a non Muslim Congress candidate. Other than that most of the Congress Muslim MLAS and Samajwadi Party leader Abu Azmi won from their respective Muslim dominated constituencies.
The two winning AIMIM MLA won from predominantly Muslim constituencies which Congress never gave ticket to Muslim candidates in spite of a sizable Muslim population and having a win-ability factor. In fact Congress never gave enough tickets to Muslim candidates and before 2009 elections a delegation of Muslim clerics and community leaders had met and requested the Maharashtra Congress leadership to give more tickets to Muslim candidates, a demand that was ignored.
Asaduddin Owaisi’s August 16 public rally in Kishanganj
AIMIM performance in Maharashtra stunned many people but AIMIM winning Aurangabad seat or doing well in Aurangabad and Nanded civic elections was not a surprise to me because both these cities have had traditional and cultural connection with Hyderabad. But what surprised me was the performance of AIMIM in Mumbai’s Byculla seat. So the big question is, will AIMIM be able to carry its magic and winning streak to other parts of the country? The answer to that is yet to be tested.
I had the opportunity to visit one of the AIMIM chief rallies in Pune earlier this year. The Muslims of Pune do not have a political culture or penchant for political activism. Pune does not even boast of great number of Muslims as other cities such as Mumbai, Bhiwandi or Malegaon yet to my surprise a significant number of Muslim youth from all parts of Pune had converged on the grounds of Kondhwa rally grounds to listen to AIMIM chief Asadduddin Owaisi.
The feeling I got at the Pune rally reminded me of the Shiv Sena in Mumbai of 1980s which was led by Bal Thackeray but followed mainly by urban Maharashtraian youth. It took 15 years for those young Maharashtraian boys to mature into adult voters and spread the party all over rural Maharashtra and reach the corridors of power.
There is no denying of the fact that AIMIM under the leadership of young Owaisi brothers have caught the fancy and imagination of the Muslim youth and it only got hardened with the Modi victory in 2014 elections. The main followers of AIMIM are the young Muslim youth of Whatsapp and Facebook generation. The younger Muslims may be active on social media or streets but it’s not certain, if they would go to the polling booth whereas the older generation does go to vote.
The older group of Indian Muslims above 50, who have been voting for Congress all their life are still not 100% behind AIMIM and many are still skeptical and unsure if a predominantly Muslim AIMIM would be enough to tackle BJP or should they continue to stick to Congress or other secular parties which is not perfect but still pluralistic and has a pan India presence to deal with BJP.
The presence of AIMIM and their increasingly confident fight for Muslim votes in primarily Muslim dominated constituencies may in certain cases indeed divide vote and help BJP but the fact is BJP has always been helped due to division of votes and four-way fights. Whether it was four way fight in UP between, SP, BSP, Congress and BJP. The Maharashtra election between NCP, Congress, BJP and Shiv Sena or the triangular fight in between JD(S), Congress and BJP in Karnataka.
What emergence of AIMIM has done especially for Muslim politics is that it has put a great pressure on secular parties like Congress and others to give tickets to Muslim candidates which in earlier instances, they took Muslim voters for granted because there was no option but to vote Congress and it also increases pressure upon the elected Muslim leaders from the secular parties to perform and deliver because AIMIM is a check upon them.
Parties like Congress and Samajwadi party had no real connection with the Muslim masses, they would give sops and tickets to its standard Muslim faces from their Muslim constituencies, who would pocket all the benefits and the Muslim voters would be happy with just the consolation of having elected a Muslim leader. And even the carrots that were offered to Muslims by leaders like Mulayam Singh and others were facetious perks like allowing caps to be worn in schools, giving holiday on Shab-e-barat or building Hajj houses.
What Asaduddin Owaisi has done has struck a chord upon the Muslims by his demand for help in jobs and education. In fact he has pragmatically asked government to use the Hajj subsidy instead for Muslim education. Such policies have to a large extend got large support among the Muslims but having said that so far Asaduddin Owaisi has also not come out with a plan or method to gain support among older Muslims or Muslim women specifically.
The bigger and actual game changer would be how AIMIM expands and moves forward from here. AIMIM is considered primarily a Muslim party, though Owaisi has been speaking about including Dalits into the party fold and has also managed to get 6 Dalit corporators elected from Aurangabad yet there are many constituencies where the combined Muslim and Dalit population is above 50%. How AIMIM manages to win over Dalits from such constituencies is the bigger challenge, for e.g. the Mumbai Bandra East constituency where AIMIM was expecting to do well but lost badly could have had a closer fight if AIMIM had fielded a Dalit candidate.
AIMIM’s charismatic leader Asaduddin Owaisi clearly has national ambitions and the potential to grow into some kind of a national Muslim party with a pan India presence. The first test will be the upcoming Bihar elections where AIMIM has chosen to fight in Muslim dominated Seemanchal region. It has a good local leader in former MLA Akhtar ul Iman who is leading the battle but it still does not have the necessary ground base and cadres to get people to vote to the polling booths especially in rural areas. The performance of the party will be tested in next month’s elections, so it’s hard to predict its chances.
The bigger test for AIMIM would be the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections that AIMIM is planning to fight ambitiously with vigour. There is clearly a space for AIMIM in Uttar Pradesh politics, where a small Muslim party like Peace Party managed to win 4 seats in last assembly elections. If AIMIM indeed aspires to be a larger player it will need more than Asaduddin Owaisi’s oratory and charisma. If AIMIM manages to create local leadership and grass root support among Uttar Pradesh Muslims and manages to win alliance with Dalit Parties such as Dalit Panther in Maharashtra or BSP in UP to get its winning combinations right will be the real test.
AIMIM is certainly on a meteoric rise and in places like Maharashtra and particularly in Mumbai it has already taken over the erstwhile Muslim representative Samajwadi Party. Whether AIMIM continues its success at this pace and manage to win seats in states like Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal and is able to become a king maker will depend upon how it manages to win the Muslim community and its ability to form future alliances with other parties.
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(Sameer Khan is an author, and independent Journalist. He tweets at @samkhan999)