Muslim voters and analysis of current political scene for general election 2014.
By Jasim Mohammad,
Indian political landscape is changing fast which is not visible on ground level to the political leaders or the analysts as they are either not trying to come on ground or often willingly overlook certain emerging factors and trends. I have tried to analyse the forthcoming battle of ballot in the light of facts and prospects. As the analysis is honest and down to earth, one may call it prejudiced or one sided but if you will think and ponder over the events and facts, you will come to the conclusion which I wish to make.
The methodology of the analysis is based on the 74 Muslim dominated constituencies of the Lok-Sabha spread over the country, emerging Modi factor, re-grouping of certain Muslim castes under the umbrella of “Pasmanda” and their impact and the role the corporate sector which it is going to play.
I feel it very childish to dismiss the Modi factor. Recently Mulayam Singh Yadav, S.P. Supremo said that, “There is no Modi factor at all as UP is not Gujarat” but he has forgotten that Modi has travelled far away from Gujarat. One can oppose the ideology persuaded by Modi but no one can deny the fact that since 2002, Modi has successfully surpassed all his opponents and there is no one in the BJP now who may challenge him. Even the octagarian LK Advani has to eat his words. First of all one should understand why Modi is galloping so speedily? India’s whole corporate sector is standing behind him compounded by a strong Hindu Rashtra lobby based in foreign countries particularly in USA and Great Britain. It should be kept in mind that Modi very successfully directed attacks on him as attack directed on Gujaraties and so the powerful Gujarati lobby of the foreign countries is now standing behind Modi and indirectly BJP with all its might.
Secondly since a long time the issue of Muslim casteism is freely discussed in public which is a deviation from early days when during the Constituent Assembly debates, certain leaders like Maulana Abul Kalam Azad forcefully said that “Islam does not sanction casteism”. Those were days when even discussing it, was social taboo though casteism was practiced more strictly at that time. Slowly but surely as the democratic process moved on, these low muslim castes realized that the development can come only through political power and being in majority they decided to seize it. Vague attempts were made earlier but those failed and the prime reason was that of “Unity of Ummah”. Our Ulema class mainly comes from high caste Muslims and so the unity of Ummah and the fear of BJP forced all other low castes to follow. But the successful experiment in Bihar where Pasmanda or low caste Muslims voted en-masses in favour of Nitish Kumar opened the doors for the frontal onslaught by the low castes of Muslims. We have to analyse that factor at least in Uttar Pradesh which sends largest number of MPs to Parliament and on all other states too particularly Bihar but our focus will remain on UP.
We have to discuss the role of corporate sector also because that is the sector which provides funds to the political parties and takes upon their publicity due to their grip on media. The present situation is that every big business house has its own newspaper, T.V. Channel and other means of communication which helps them in lobbying. This sector barring few is going only to help BJP or Modi because the development formula of Modi suits to them and it is natural that they will like Modi to be Prime Minister of India. Recall it was Rahul Bajaj who had first mooted the idea of Modi being India’s Prime Minister.
For analytical studies, we have to take into consideration performances of the different political parties in the last Lok-Sabha elections and their prospects in 2014 elections. Finally we have to take up remedial actions to stop the march of Modi or BJP to New Delhi and that is very necessary as you may recall that the Adolf Hotler had walked to power galleries of Germany in the same manner by democratic channels.
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh sends largest contingent to the Parliament with 85 seats and out of that 16 constituencies are Muslim dominated from 21 percent Muslim population to 50 percent. These constituencies are Rampur (50%), Moradabad (41%), Saharanpur (39%), Bijnor (39%), Amroha (38%), Meerut (31%), Kairana (30%), Bareilly (29%), Muzaffarnagar (28%), Sambhal (28%), Domairiaganj (27%), Bahraich (23%), Kaisarganj (23%), Lucknow (23%), Shahajahanpur (21%) and Barabanki (21%). Out of these 16 constituencies, the Congress won in 5 constitueries namely Moradabad, Bareilly, Domariaganj, Bahraich and Barabanki, the Samajwadi Party won 03 seats from Rampur, Kaisargaj, Shahjahanpur, BSP won 04 seats at Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar and Sambhal while RLD won 02 seat from Bijnor and Amroha (RLD had an election alliance with Congress). The BJP won 02 seats from Meerut and Lucknow both shocking as these seats have 30 and 23 percent Muslim population. Out of these 16 seats, Muslim won in four namely Moradabad, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar and Sambhal.
Now let count runner up, the Congress was runner up in Rampur and Lucknow while the Samajwadi Party was runner up at Sahranpur, Amroha, Sambhal and Barabanki. The BSP was runner up in Moradabad, Bijnor, Meerut, Bahraich, Kaiserganj and RLD in Muzaffarnagar. BJP runned behind in kairana Bareilly Domariaganj and shahjahanpur. BJP always wins the seats due to division of votes among secular parties and these figures point out that the division of votes were remained same but the BJP failed in increasing its traditional votes. (Refer to chart: 1).
Modi factor: Rajnath Singh, the BJP President wisely selected Narendra Modi to carry on the election campaign for 2014 election. One may debate or argue but the plain fact is that after demolition of Babri Masjid (1992) and the Gujarat Genocide (2002), young Hindu voter has become machao. It is a matter of deep analysis and research that the Indian society is increasingly becoming violent and the mafia dons and machao image is fast becoming role model for our youths. Under this scenario and the soft Hindutva adopted by the mainline political party, the Congress, the Hindu feels an attraction towards Modi and they feel that under Modi spell they will be able to assert. This factor is going in favour of BJP and if the secular political parties and the saner elements among Indian citizenry failed to act even now, there is no returning point.
Fragmentation in Muslim Society: Muslim society today is not a monolithic section. The concept of “Ummah” is totally wiped out for all practical purposes. Muslim Society is divided on horizontal and vertical lines. If they are divided on Muslaks, they are also divided into castes and sub-castes. It has become a common feature to see Barelvi –Deobandi clashes beside Shia-Sunni. Under currents of casteism are now going visible. In ticket distribution, all the political parties particularly the Congress prefer high caste Muslims (Called Ashrafs) and ignore low caste (Ajlafs) whereas the fact is that the low caste and backward class muslims constitute nearly 80 to 85 percent of the Muslim population and hence they have majority on polling booths. This section, low caste and backward class muslims is going to fail all political calculations, if not checked in time and the beneficiary will be BJP. Pasmanda Muslims, new name by which they are known, have successfully installed JD(U) government in Bihar in alliance with BJP which has now broken up. Presently atleast Central and Eastern UP is the hub of Pasmanda politics. Batala House encounter and the refusal of the Congress led UPA government to inquire the fake encounter and Compounded by the killing of Khalid Mujahid have given extra power to Pasmanda politics.
AMU Minority status: Since a very long time, the demand of restoration of minority status to the Aligarh Muslim University is pending. Now a case is pending in the Supreme Court on the same issue. This issue agitates all Muslims irrespective of high or low castes. Sonia Gandhi, Chairperson of UPA herself had assured the students and faculty of the AMU to restore it during her address to AMU convocation but since then the government has kept a deadly silence. In my opinion, the Samajwadi Prty and BSP both will use this issue to target the Congress.
Reservation of Muslims: Time to time, muslims have raised the demand for reservation in employment and education and some half heartedly steps were taken but they failed to deliver the results and were challenged in the courts. There is need to look afresh on the issue. If the reservation for Muslims as a whole is not possible then atleast the backward class Muslims can be extended reservation under Mandal Commission. Though on paper such a provision exists but practically it is not benefiting Muslims at all. It will be wise for the concerned parties to ensure practical reservation. This section of Muslim community may be extended a separate reservation of 8 to 9 percent within 27 percent reservation to OBCs under Mandal Commission.
National Scene:
There are 74 Lok-Sabha constituencies which have Muslim concentration. These seats include that of Uttar Pradesh also which we have already discussed above.
Among these 74 constituencies, Congress won only 25 seats and the BJP in 17 constituencies. Rest of seats have won by the regional parties like Samajwadi Party, BSP, JD(U) etc. In the seats won by Congress, the runner up were mainly regional parties leaving few places where BJP was runner-up like Barailly. (Ref: Analysis Chapter: A). It means both the national parties could manage a little of above 50 percent seats.
Comfortable Majority: On the analysis of all these 74 constituencies which are Muslim dominated but are also dominated by the regional parties, one can assume that comfortable majority is a distant dream for both the parties, the Congress and the BJP and for the time being coalition governments are here to stay.
Performance of Muslim Candidates
Now let us see the performance of the muslim candidates in the last elections on national level. Most of winning muslim candidates in Muslim dominated constituencies won the election despite many other muslim candidates in the field. For example Kadir Rana won election by getting 275318 votes out of 745001 (36.96%) from Muzaffarnagar (U.P.) defeating 3 other Muslims. Likewise Mohd Azharuddin won Moradabad seat after receiving 301283 votes out of 760944 (39.59%) where seven other Muslims were also in field. The analysis show that they could won elections due to tactical decision of the community in respective constituencies otherwise in many constituencies Muslims have lost even with large presence. Hence the tendency to field Muslims from Muslim dominated constituencies is backfiring and the gainer is BJP (Ref: Analysis Chapter: B).
If we go by on the basis of assembly seats which will be beneficial to both for the Assembly as well as the Parliamentary elections then we have to consider a total 403 Assembly segments falling under 71 districts. We will see that in 2007 total 55 Muslims were elected from these seats while 69 won in 2012 which comes to an average 17.12 percent Muslim presence in the UP assembly. The figure is thought provoking because as per their population, they should have much higher representation. It has been observed that the Muslims are not elected from the constituencies where their presence is low. This tendency indicate the social thinking and at this point we have failed to translate Constitutional secularism on ground level. In several districts like Kannouj, Gautam Budhnagar, Pratapgarh, Jalaun etc not a single Muslim was elected though Muslim population was 15.78, 14.15, 13.7 and 10.06 percent respective there. (Ref.: Chart No: 3).
Checking Modi March: As we have seen and as all are aware that on national level only the Congress and the BJP matters for the forthcoming Lok-Sabha elections, we have to leave BJP here as we have no concern with it. We are concerned only with Congress or Congress led alliance. To stop march of BJP led by Narendra Modi, The Congress as well as the community itself should take up immediate steps.
Congress: Congress is the leading partner in UPA which is ruling at Centre presently and the parliamentary elections will be contested under it. The Congress should take some steps on war footing otherwise it is going to lose support in the elections.
It should not make hurdle in the CBI inquiry of Ishrat Jahan fake encounter in Gujarat. The CBI has demanded certain files from Home Minsitry which are not being handed over to them till finalizing this analysis report and that is sending a wrong signal. The files should be given and all guilty people irrespective of their position must be booked.
Murder of Khalid Mujahid is hotting up in the Uttar Pradesh due to two reasons. First he comes from backward class muslim community and second the murder took place under SP government in UP. Rihai Manch is carrying on dharna without any positive results. Though its direct impact will be on SP but if the Congress takes up the issue in UP, it will gain. Till now UP Congress and Congress leaders have kept a deadly silence over it. And mind it that the cream of Muslims intelligencia is associated with “Rihai Manch” which may positively or negatively affect the forthcoming elections.
Aligarh Muslim University:
The issue of the Minority Status of the Aligarh Muslim University is hanging in the air. It should be solved in any manner but must be solved to send the message that, “We care you”.
Reservation of Muslims is also an issue which must be addressed At this hour nothing can be done but atleast the Congress led UPA may announce fixing up of the quota within 27 percent Mandal Commission reservation to the Backward class muslims.
Congress and other secular political parties should give tickets to the backward class Muslims in convincing numbers to defuse the ongoing politics of Pasmanda Muslims.
Many recommendations of the Sachar Committee have not been put to action. There is need to take up some actions on them to send positive signals.
The Congress should change priorities and involve ground level muslim NGOs behind the door for campaigning during the elections. Till now the Congress has entertained only selected few individuals and organizations based at Delhi. That is not going to work. NGOs of UP must be involved and particularly those who may have campaigned in favour of Congress earlier also.
Urdu language should be promoted without delay atleast to send some good signals.
Muslim Community
In fact Muslim community is at a cross-road and confused lot. It has no options before it except to watch and wait. But results comes from actions and that too by positive activities. The Muslim community should ensure that:
1. No politics of fragmentation should take roots within the society because its direct benefit will go to BJP
2. If there are a number of Muslim candidates from secular parties, the community leaders and intellectuals should try to zero on one whose winning capability may be sure.
3. Muslims should increase their presence on polling booths. Their polling ratio is declining day by day. Politics at dhabas and lanes do not pay. It pays only when you go to booths.
4. Muslims should support secular Hindu Candidates of the secular parties but emphasis should be on the Congress. Other parties may be supported only it the Congress candidates is seen sure to lose.
It should also be mentioned that the Muslim youths are being arrested in the name of terrorism in large numbers and majority of them have been released by the various courts after spending many years is the jails. Hence the Congress should create time bound fast track courts to dispose off terror cases. Side by side a compensation of an Rs 50 Lakh should be given to those who are judicially acquitted of terror allegations to make prosecuting agencies more accountable.
I shall also propose that the assembly and parliamentary constituencies with substantial Muslim population must be de-reserved by appointing a determination Commission to improve Muslim representation in legislative bodies-likewise a mechanism should be evolved to nominate Muslims in public position of power and decision making bodies. According to Mishra Commission, Muslims constitute 73 percent of all minorities, hence at least 60 to 70 percent nomination of Muslims should be made in the schemes or projects meant for minorities.
For special recruitment of 1400 additional IPS officers, scrap the Limited Competitive Examination (LCE) as it pre-empts Muslim intake. Side by side, the Congress should establish Indian Waqf Service where senior officers are deputed or recruited to manage the waqf properties. Already such a provision exists for the management of Hindu temples and endowments. It is very necessary that recommendation of Sachar Committee and Joint Parliamentary Committee and Waqfs must be included in the Waqf Bill-2013. At the same time the various State and Central governments should vacate Waqf properties occupied by them.
Equivalence should be granted between Masarsa certificates and degrees and other educational boards to bring the Madarsa students into mainstream. Equal Opportunities Commission should be constituted to ensure level playing field and providing opportunities to all sections of Indian citizenry for uniform progress.
Involve Muslim beneficiary groups in the planning and oversight of the schemes and projects aimed at their welfare. Least the congress must do is to stop in lip-service policy towards Muslims and other marginalized classes because saner elements of Indian society including Muslims do not want to support divisive or communal forces but at the sametime they also did not want to vote the Congress for third time into power. It may be that they chalk out a strategy for a non-Congress and non-BJP alternative and to wipe out that possibility, the Congress should go into thought provoking sessions and correct the wrong doing as it is still the first choice of the sections stated above including Muslims.
Conclusion:
The above analysis is based on ground realities and data. But one thing is sure that if you will keep up this “Report” intact, you will yourself see its worth after the 2014 elections. This report may open success gates to the Congress, if it can act on it and take up fallow up actions. It can stop March of Modi to Delhi, if the community takes up it seriously and arrested its fragmentation right now.
*The Writer is Secretary General, Forum for Muslim Studies & Analysis (FMSA), Aligarh. Can reached Email: [email protected] & [email protected]