Muslims desirous of going for Hajj is not just a function of religious fervor but also an indication of their economic condition.The number of applications received for each state can tell a fascinating story of economic condition of Muslims of that state.
By Kashif-ul-Huda, TwoCircles.net
Every year more than a hundred thousand Muslims from India go for Hajj, one of the five pillars of Islam and mandatory for those who can afford it. During 1970s more than a thousand-year old preferred mode of travel for Indian hajis, the ships were discontinued and Air India was given the monopoly over Hajj travels from India. Government of India provided monetary help to Air India to take this yearly undertaking of moving 1 lakh pilgrims from different parts of India to Makkah and back.
Millions of tawaaf (circumambulation around Kaaba) later, the situation of Indian Muslims have changed a lot. Can the hajj data provide a snapshot of changes in the economic situation of Muslims of India?
We set out to slice the data to see what we can find. See Chart here:
Private vs Hajj Committee
First thing that is noticeable is that now one quarter of Indian hajis go through private tour operators (PTOs). A hajj through Hajj Committee of India (HCI) costs either Rs 2,15,000 or Rs 1,76,000 while private tour operators will be more expensive, however, they provide better accommodation and services (Of course, complaints about both HCI and PTOs abound). While HCI is more transparent in its operations, PTOs are not able to confirm until the last minute whether one was selected for the hajj or not, giving stressful time to lot of people.
Air India Subsidy
Ministry of Civil Aviation provides subsidy for air travel for Hajj, which is paid directly to Air India. By the way, Muslims have never asked for this subsidy and, in fact, calls have been made to get it removed because it is clear that Hajjis are already paying higher than normal price for air ticket.
Air India has complete monopoly on this operation, however, it sub-contracts some of its work to Saudi Airlines.In 2014, Hajis were charged Rs 35,000 per head. The air ticket to Jeddah from Delhi currently ranges from 20k to 30k and this year Hajis will be asked an amount of Rs 42,000 per person just for the air tickets.
Air India claims that the actual cost ranged from Rs 63,750 to Rs 1,63,350 depending on the embarkation points. Last year, Air India was paid Rs 533 crore as subsidy. In 2013,it was Rs 680 crore while it was Rs 837 crore in 2012, a downward slope since the Supreme Court order in 2012 directing this subsidy be phased out in 10 years.
VIP Quota
As many as 500 people do Hajj every year paid by the government of India. They are nominated (or rather people who lobby to get their names approved for all-expense paid Hajj) by President, VP, Prime Minister, etc. This is a practice that started after the 1965 war with Pakistan and continues to this day.
Hajj as an economic indicator
Muslims’ desire for going for Hajj is not just a function of religious fervor but also an indication of their economic condition.Therefore an increase in people desirous of taking this journey can be used as an indication of increased economic prosperity of Muslims while the real economic and physical costs of the pilgrimage continues to come down.
For smoother Hajj operation, Saudi Arabia allocates quota to each country. One haji is allowed per 1,000 Muslim population of the country. Hajj Committee of India uses the same formula for fixing quota for each state. But not all states are able to fill the quota, in some cases number of applications received is less than the quota assigned, in which case, the unused seats are then allocated to other states.
The number of applications received for each state can tell a fascinating story of economic condition of Muslims of that state.
In terms of applications received, Kerala, Maharashtra and Gujarat with over 50,000 applications stand out at one end of the spectrum. Uttar Pradesh, which has the largest quota in accordance with its Muslim population, comes close fourth with 41,000 applications.
Gujarat which has 3,124 as quota for 2015 received 51,138 applications i.e. 16.4 times over its quota. Kerala received 12.2 times and Lakshadweep 11.7 times more applications than their assigned quota. Delhi (8.0 times), Madhya Pradesh (7.8), and Maharashtra (7.6), Uttarakhand (6.7), Tamil Nadu (6.4), and Jammu & Kashmir (6.4) are other cluster of states that stand out.
At the other end of the spectrum are states that receive applications less than the quota assigned to them. No prize for guessing that these are West Bengal, Bihar, and Assam.Also, the Assam quota includes Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Sikkim.
Regional variation:
Next logical step was to analyze the same data region wise. The regional variation of economic condition of Muslims appears more clearly in this chart:
Western and southern states appear close together with number of applications received, possibly an indication of their proximity in economic prosperity.
A surprise is the central region consisting of only two states – MadhyaPradesh and Chhattisgarh – which has the lowest number of quota (as region) assigned but number of applications it receives is more than seven and a half times. A clear indication that Muslims of these two states are economically stronger than their brothers and sisters in faith in Northeastern states. In Northeastern states, only Manipur with 3.9 times the quota, stands out while other states see less applications than quota assigned to them.
In the plot above, Eastern region appears at the other end from the Northeastern region as it has more quota assigned but in reality these two regions are closer to each other (as indicated by the size of the circle which is indicative of ratio of applications received to the quota).
In between two extremes sits Northern regions which consists of UP, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Punjab, J&K etc and shows the relative economic prosperity there with application received over three times than the quota.
Perhaps, picture is clearer in the following plot, where size of the bubble is number of applications received:
Relative growth
If one agrees that Hajj data provides a unique view of economic health of Indian Muslims then this can also be used as an indicator of evaluating economic growth. A five-year hajj data of applications received from 2008 to 2012 and combined with data of applications received for 2015 released by Hajj Committee of India can provide some interesting insight.
Comparing number of applications received in 2008 with data in 2015 shows that Western and Southern region see the highest growth with 70.5 % and 62.8% growth in applications respectively. A huge growth considering that the time period is only seven years. Even Central region shows 48% growth and relatively poor Eastern and Northeastern also show respectable 36.5% and 28.9% growth respectively. One troubling region, however, is the northern region that remains stagnant with just 0.4% growth.
A closer look at Northern region shows that two states within this region, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab show negative growth. Punjab shows a steady decline from 2008 to 2015, perhaps an indication of decline in economic fortune of the state.
But Punjab is a smaller state when it comes to Muslim population. The big giant of a state in Northern region is Uttar Pradesh and here the data shows a disturbing story.
In 2008, the number of applications were 59k which went up to 63k in 2009. Next two years show a modest decline of 56k in 2010 and 51k in 2011 before a huge decline to just 36k in 2012. Now I am not sure if this has anything to do with it but 2012 is the year when Samajwadi Party came to power in the state with highest number of Muslim MLA ever elected to the UP Assembly – 69, compared to 56 in 2007 election where BSP was the winner.
This motion chart shows the economic disparity of Indian Muslims clearly. The population of Muslims are concentrated in Eastern and Northern regions (accounting for 58% of Muslim population) which shows modest to no growth while the regions surging ahead with most growth are Western and Southern which collectively account for 32%.
Post Script
More analysis is needed to find out the exact reasons for reductions of number of applications from Uttar Pradesh. Since PTOs’data is not available state-wise, it is difficult to say if reduction in number is anything to do with more of UP Muslims going through PTOs. In the absence of that, more data needs to be analyzed to see if there is any indication of slowing down of economic opportunities for Muslims of UP.
Policy makers, community organizations and activists need to focus more attention on economic activities of Eastern and Northeastern states to improve overall economic conditions of Muslims.
References:
http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=123560
www.hajcommittee.com/Files/Circular/2015/circular_2015_10.pdf
http://www.mea.gov.in/media-briefings.htm?dtl/21591/Q3286+HAJ+QUOTA+FOR+ANDHRA+PRADESH