Bloomberg – the latest dark horse in presidential field

By DPA

Washington : When US politicians say they have "no plans" to run for office, it is generally interpreted by political pundits as "watch this space".


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In the run-up to the presidential elections in 2008, that time-honoured phrase has been used countless times by Al Gore but has done little to stem rumours that the former vice president is merely biding his time.

So it is hardly surprising that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's announcement that he had left the Republican party – with the added caveat that his "plans for the future haven't changed" – only fuelled speculation that he is considering an independent run at the White House in 2008.

On Wednesday, Bloomberg reiterated that his "intention" was to finish out his term as mayor, which ends in 2009. He said: "I've got the greatest job in the world and I'm going to keep doing it."

Bloomberg, a billionaire businessman-turned politician who owns the financial media empire Bloomberg LP, has already had a chequered political past. Bloomberg was a long-time Democrat before running as a Republican for mayor of New York in 2001. He was re-elected overwhelmingly in 2005.

Independents and third-party candidates have always had a hard slog in the US political system. Yet with the low popularity not only of President George W. Bush, but also of a divided and bickering Congress, the time may yet be rife.

This week, despite his denials, Bloomberg was already talking up that classic platform of all independent candidates hoping to succeed in the US two-party system.

"The politics of partisanship and the resulting inaction and excuses have paralysed decision-making," Bloomberg said in Los Angeles Monday night, at an event attended by another independent-minded Republican, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Aside from his business background, Bloomberg, like Schwarzenegger, long stood out as unusual in the Republican Party. He supports abortion rights, gun control, and tough measures to combat climate change. He has vowed to turn New York into the "Green Apple", supporting a London-style congestion charge on drivers and converting all taxis into hybrid vehicles.

Many of his core issues are similar to the last independent to make a splash in US elections: Ralph Nader, a Green Party candidate and consumer rights activist who famously called the Republican and Democratic parties "tweedledum and tweedledee".

Nader's run in 2000 demonstrated both the tremendous uphill battle third-party candidates face, and also the power that outside figures can hold in swaying the election's result.

Already a high-profile figure in American life before his run, Nader garnered less than 3 percent of the vote in 2000, yet is still widely blamed by Democrats for costing Gore the election against current President Bush.

So what would make Bloomberg's chances better? Money for a start, most political pundits agree.

Bloomberg's fortune, amassed over a lifetime in business before he entered politics, means he has little need to raise the kind of sky-high sums – an estimated $500 million – needed to make a run for the White House.

Another difference from 2000: both the Republican and Democratic fields remain wide open. Altogether, seven Democrats and 10 Republicans have declared themselves a candidate – and that's not counting the dark horses that haven't revealed their intentions yet.

Gore consistently places third or fourth in Democratic opinion polls. Fred Thompson, a former Republican senator and star of the television series Law and Order, recently placed second in an opinion poll on the Republican side, though he too has not yet entered the race.

Conversely, Bloomberg's other potential problem – New Yorkers rarely do well nationally – could also be neutralized if the two current frontrunners win their parties' nomination: former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani and New York Senator Hillary Clinton.

Yet those potential advantages hardly outweigh the challenges for independents, not least of which are the hurdles of even getting one's name on the ballot in all 50 US states.

"Even with pockets as deep as Bloomberg's, an independent run for the presidency is extraordinarily difficult in the US," says Costas Panagopoulos, an assistant professor at New York's Fordham University. "The deck is stacked against independent candidates every step of the way."

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