BSP to remain aloof, to contest on its own
By Faisal Fareed, Twocircles.net
Lucknow: In backdrop of Samajwadi Party’s silver jubilee celebrations on Saturday in Lucknow, voices of forming Grand Alliance on lines of Bihar are gaining ground in Uttar Pradesh.
A bruised SP has offered an olive branch to all old socialists for coming on one stage to defeat communal forces. The occasion was on November 5 to celebrate the silver jubilee as an excuse for cementing the relationship.
Such alliances always crop up before elections in Hindi belt. This time the call is from Mulayam for the unity of all followers of Lohia, Gandhi and even Charan Singh. The old socialists have a habit of joining hands quickly only to part ways immediately.
The celebrations were attended by JD (S) leader and former PM H D Dewegowda, RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, JD (U) president Sharad Yadav, INLD leader Abhay Chautala, RLD chief Ajit Singh and all of them exhorted Mulayam to take up the cudgels against communal forces and lead the front. According to them Mulayam should come forward and unite all the secular forces in the country.
The combination does not appear to be so simple. There are hiccups in it. Even efforts are being done to include Congress as its poll manager Prashant Kishore has held meeting with Mulayam and Shivpal but Akhilesh refused to meet him on Saturday.
The need for a grand alliance
The power tussle in SP has weakened it both politically and morally for the polls forcing it come on it’s knees for an alliance. BJP on the other hand is rejuvenated after 2014 Lok Sabha victory. Even Congress has realised after the much propaganda of poll management by Prashant Kishore that it needs an alliance for sailing through the polls. Other smaller parties like JD (U), RLD and even RJD are always open to alliance as they have nothing to lose. Caste based parties as Bhartiya Samaj Party, Apna Dal, Mahan Dal find it a good opportunity to extract their pound of flesh. For all of them, a weakened SP has created a situation where they can dictate their terms for a coalition.
SP understands that leaders like Sharad Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav may not have vote in the state but are crowd puller. Further a Grand Alliance like situation gives the psychological edge in poll battle when confronting a strong opposition. It also elevates the position of party leaders when fighting unitedly.
What is the equation?
The probable parties for coalition include mainly Congress, RLD of Ajit Singh and SP. In 2012 Congress contested on 355 seats and won 28 seats with 11.65 % of votes, RLD contested on 46 seats, won nine seats with 2.33 % votes while SP contested on 401 seats and won 224 seats with 29.13 % vote share. Other minor parties who have tall leaders but virtually nil vote share in UP include JD (U), RJD and even Communists.
Sadly in politics mathematical calculations do not work. Merely adding up the vote percentage cannot give results instead of caste equations. Now Congress has virtually no fixed vote bank. Its 28 MLAs won mainly on two factors—personal appeal and local caste equations with hardly any issue of Congress. Hence transfer of Congress vote bank is totally ruled out as the grand old party has leaders but not voters. SP has Muslims and Yadavs while RLD still has a section of Jats in Western UP. These groups may give leverage in a possible tie-up.
What are the other alliances that can work?
Not ready to be left behind, BJP has already stuck alliance with Bhartiya Samaj Party led by Om Prakash Rajbhar who commands a following among Rajbhar voters. Apna Dal faction has been taken into fold by inducting Anupriya Patel in ministry with an eye on Kurmi voters. Talks are also on with other smaller caste based parties.
Peace Party of Dr Ayub which won four seat in 2012 and has clout among weaver section of Muslims has already tied up with Mahan Dal of Keshav Prasad Maurya who has following among Maurya, Kushwaha, Shakya communities. This tie up has been reportedly done at the behest of PK and is likely to end up as part of Grand Alliance.
The parties that remain aloof
Bahujan Samaj Party is keeping itself away from any possible tie-up. The reason that its vote gets transferred while voters from its alliance partners do not vote for BSP. In present scenario BSP is seeing a golden opportunity to get Muslim votes after weakening of SP and is harping on formidable equation of Dalit-Muslim voters. In the past BSP has entered into alliance twice once in 1993 with SP which ended on a bitter note in form of guest house incident and in 1996 with Congress which failed to increase its vote share.
Another party led by Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi All India Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen cannot be ignored as if it cannot win at least it can easily be the factor of defeat in many segments.
Why Bihar-like Grand Alliance is not feasible in UP
Though part of Hindi belt, political situation is totally different for repeating the success of Grand Alliance. In Bihar, there was bipolar contest between BJP led NDA and Grand Alliance leaving little diversion of votes. In UP, there are parties like BSP who will contest independently making it multi-cornered contest. Bihar’s Grand Alliance had the edge of Sushasan of Nitish Kumar as CM and caste equation of Lalu Prasad. Here both will be missing as there are multiple CM faces—Sheila Dixit of Congress, Jayant Choudhary of RLD and Akhilesh Yadav of SP. Yadavs are more in Bihar making things easier for Lalu while here there number is not much to become an effective force. Smaller parties will play spoilsport in UP as their role becomes important by eroding votes.
The most difficult task will be ticket distribution in Grand Alliance. SP has now nearly 230 MLs who are sitting legislators. It is not easy to deny them ticket. Further those who came second will also stake claim making it more difficult. Sharing up seats with other political parties will jeopardize the chances of majority of SP leaders which will result in defection and groupism. It will not be an easy task to pacify the major players in the Grand Alliance during ticket distribution. Questions will be raised over handing over seats to virtually non existent parties as JD (U) and RJD.
Most importantly Mulayam has lost the credibility of becoming leader of any Grand Alliance after his pull out from Bihar. His political image has taken a beating and it will not be an easy task to restore the confidence. Comments by SP leaders joining Grand Alliance in Bihar was like signing death warrant and Nitish’s remark that Mulayam is VC of University of Secularism is still afresh. Nitish too has ambition of being the leader of any anti BJP front which may have clash with Mulayam’s claim. Nitish was not present during the silver jubilee celebrations in Lucknow.