By Rakesh Mohan Chaturvedi, IANS
New Delhi : The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may be faring miserably in terms of seats in many states but it is definitely giving sleepless nights to other political parties.
Although the BSP is not able to put up a showing anywhere close to what it did in Uttar Pradesh in May when it took power on its own, it is simply undoing the prospects of other parties, in particular the Congress.
Both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh prove this point. In Gujarat, the BSP did not win a single seat. But its candidates are said to have got enough votes to spoil the chances of the Congress winning in nearly 18 constituencies. It lost four seats by 300 to 1,000 votes.
Congress general secretary and in-charge of Gujarat elections B.K. Hariprasad admits this: “Yes, they have damaged our chances in those seats where the number of Dalit voters was significant.”
While some would wave this aside as another alibi by the Congress over its poor performance in Gujarat, others see this as a plausible cause for its humiliating drubbing in the state.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), despite fighting great odds, won 117 seats in the 182-member assembly, leaving less than 60 for the Congress.
“The 4,000-5,000 votes BSP candidates got could have meant a lot for us,” said a Congress functionary.
In Himachal Pradesh, whose election results followed Gujarat’s, the BSP won just one seat despite contesting in most of the 68 constituencies. But it ended up attracting votes of the Dalits and even Hindu upper castes in large numbers.
And while the upper castes are divided between the Congress and BJP, which eventually won in Himachal, the Dalits and the poor from other communities have traditionally voted for the Congress across the country.
Congress insiders said that party leaders in Karnataka had stated that the BSP was one of the reasons for its poor showing in the southern state.
In Delhi’s municipal elections, the BSP caused jitters in both the BJP and Congress camps by winning 17 seats. BJP and Congress leaders privately concede that the BSP has a great future in the national capital.
The Congress is naturally concerned, but there is not much it can do. To add to the woes of the Congress, even Muslims are turning to the BSP in large numbers, particularly when they see that its candidates have winning chances.
“Though the Dalit-Brahmin combination (where a Brahmin candidate stands on the BSP ticket and wins the election by getting dalit and Brahmin votes) may not reap the same benefits as it did in Uttar Pradesh, it definitely works as a dampener for other parties,” said a minister in the cabinet of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati, the party’s undisputed and no-nonsense leader.
A similar scenario is likely to emerge in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which will go to the polls in 2008.
The BSP’s Brahmin face, Satish Chandra Mishra, has been given the responsibility of garnering votes for the party from the community in these two states.
Mayawati’s supporters have also been active in parts of Delhi, which will go to polls when the Shiela Dikshit-led Congress government completes its term in 2008.
BSP leaders feel that until such time when it becomes strong enough to win seats outside Uttar Pradesh, its power to influence the electoral outcome will work as a good bargaining ploy with other parties who want to prevent the BJP (BJP) from winning.
No wonder then that both the Congress and BJP are praying for a tie-up with the BSP, a success story in Indian politics.