By Shubha Singh, IANS
The resignation of Mahanta Thakur, senior Nepali Congress minister, and other senior politicians from mainstream political parties earlier this month to set up a new political front has created an opportunity for the emergence of a mature leadership, which the Terai region requires.
The Madhesi agitation that has destabilised the Terai region is without an organised leadership – there are too many armed factions and groups with their own plans, driving it in different directions. Several Madhesi groups have already dismissed the 23-point agreement concluded by the seven- party alliance for holding elections for a constituent assembly by mid-April on the grounds that it does not meet their demands.
Their demands include elections on full proportional representation and a federal structure, instead of the 60 percent proportional representation agreed to in the 23-point agreement.
A faction of the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum has announced its decision to re-launch their agitation from Jan 19, 2008. About two-dozen armed groups exist in the Terai, most of whom are splinter groups that have broken up into even smaller factions, some with a membership roll of less than 50. The government has not undertaken any political initiative to reach out to the estranged Madhesi groups but neither are there any identifiable leaders in the fragmented polity with whom purposeful talks can be held.
Thakur’s resignation from the cabinet and from the Nepali Congress, his party of five decades, and the resignation of senior members of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), Nepal Sadbhavana Party, and the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party belonging to the Terai region was a rude shock for the ruling establishment in Kathmandu. Shortly after the resignations of the senior leaders, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala had a meeting with a group of ruling party parliamentarians from the Terai region.
There had been strong rumours that more Madhesi MPs would tender their resignations in due course. The MPs assured Koirala that they were not planning to join the new political front but some expressed the opinion that the Terai problem was likely to get worse if the government did not respond to the demands of the people.
Koirala’s immediate task of persuading the Maoists to return to the government and setting the timeframe for the much postponed elections for the constituent assembly was accomplished through last week’s 23-point agreement.
The agreement has also brought the focus back onto the critical need to hold elections. But the Terai region remains volatile. Some of the armed Madhesi groups have threatened to disrupt the elections as the polls will not address their demands, though the moderate Madhesis see elections as vital for people to be able to express their views.
The main political parties as well as the Maoists have ignored the aspirations of the Madhes region and there is a corresponding disenchantment among the people in the region with the mainstream political parties.
The Madhesi people in the densely populated, fertile region of Terai have long standing grievances of discrimination.
The refusal of the parties to pay heed to the demands of the region has led to widespread alienation from the political set-up in Kathmandu. The Madhes region had for long been a support bank for the Nepali Congress. The UML had made inroads in the region and the people had also responded to the Maoists. But when the Madhesi stir erupted, it was the Maoists who were the most strongly opposed to the Madhesi agitation.
Some political leaders tried to portray the agitation as a destabilising and secessionist force that would disrupt the peace process for it has shaken the base of all the major political parties in the region.
There still seems to be a disinclination on the part of the mainstream parties to take a serious look at the Terai problem. The resignation of the senior leaders is a sign of the increasing dissatisfaction in the region.
There are signs of realignment of forces as well, for there has been some amount of consolidation among the armed groups, which could raise further problems for the state forces. Two different factions of the Janatantrik Tarai Mukti Morcha led by Jwala Singh and Bisphot Singh announced an alliance with the Terai Tigers.
Shortly thereafter, the Madhes Liberation Front was set up by the Rajendra Mahato faction of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Anandi Devi) and the Madhesi People’s Rights Forum (MPRF) led Upendra Mahato.
One of the problems in the region has been the absence of moderate leaders in the Madhesi agitation. Thakur and the new political front can be a moderate force with a political programme.
Many in the region, including a few armed groups welcomed the resignations since Thakur, an old time politician, has a clean image. However, much will depend on the next moves of this political front of traditional politicians, on how they interact with the Terai-based groups and reach out to the common people.
They still need to gain the respect of the alienated Madeshis to be able to voice the aspirations of the people. The prolonged uncertainty and repeated postponement of elections has left the state machinery considerably weakened, and restoring order in the Terai has become essential for holding peaceful elections in Nepal. However, the Terai is not just a law and order problem, it needs a political initiative to address the feeling of marginalisation and discrimination among the people.
(Shubha Singh is a writer on international affairs. She can be reached at [email protected])