By IANS
New Delhi : The government Friday said the number of HIV/AIDS patients in India is now down to 2.5 million, less than half what was previously estimated, but non-governmental organisations expressed scepticism at the dramatic decline in the prevalence rate.
The startling figures, released Friday jointly by the UNAIDS, World Health Organization (WHO) and National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) – the dedicated wing of the Indian health ministry to fight the disease – said that the national adult HIV prevalence in India now stands between 2 million and 3.1 million.
"We have taken an average of the most accurate prevalence data and underline that India is home to 2.5 million HIV infected people," Anbumani Ramadoss told reporters.
"Experts from India and round the world were consulted and after a lot of hard work and outstanding support from WHO, UNAIDS and other partners, we have been able to arrive at a robust figure that all our experts feel is as correct an estimate as we can get.
"The results show that there are an estimated 2 million to 3.1 million people infected with HIV/AIDS with a prevalence level of 0.36 percent," the minister added.
S. Habayeb, WHO India representative, told IANS, "We are happy with the outcome and hope the country will continue to fight to halt and reverse the HIV epidemic in India."
Ramadoss said the estimates are based on mainly two important sources of data.
"First we continue to have the data from our sentinel surveillance, now expanded to 1,122 sites from the earlier 703 sites. This year, we have the additional inputs from the National Family Health Survey, which is a countrywide community based household survey," said Ramadoss.
With this revised estimate, India goes down from its second position to the third in the HIV infected country list. While South Africa remains at the top of the list, Nigeria has taken over from India to occupy the second slot.
However, non-governmental experts said that the government data is not acceptable in its entirety.
"They have reduced the number by almost 2.7 million but what happened to these people? How come the health minister give us data without proper justification through which they have arrived at the decision?" said Anandi Yuvraj, project managers AIDS, at Path, an international NGO.
Anjali Gopalan, head of Naz Foundation in Delhi, was also uncomfortable with the data. "We have to wait and watch the development. If the government is claiming that they have expanded their surveillance then I am sure the number will fluctuate further."
Anushree Mishra of the Global AIDS Programme, an international NGO, said: "I will really question the figure given by the Indian government and the UNAIDS today. How can the number come down from 5.2 million to 2.5 million?"
"On one hand they are saying that the disease is spreading to several new pockets in Bihar, Orissa and some other north Indian states and at the same time reducing the national tally. What's the basis?" Mishra questioned.
According to NACO, India earlier was estimated to have a 5.2 million HIV- infected population in a country of 1.1 billion people and the UNAIDS last year had even said that the country is home to 5.7 million people with HIV – more than that of South Africa. The Indian government, however, did not buy the UN estimate.
"We think it's a very accurate data. The expanded sentinel surveillance system and the large population based survey conducted in 2005-06 has helped experts to come to this conclusion," said Peter D. Ghys, manager, epidemic and impact monitoring, epidemic monitoring and prevention policy of UNAIDS.
UNAIDS also said that In India, the HIV epidemic can vary according from region to region. Specifically, HIV prevalence is higher in some southern and northeastern states.
"The population based survey (NFHS) represents an entirely new source of data for India and is the first time that it has included an HIV component. The sample size for HIV was over 100,000 people. The type of survey has been conducted in many countries in Africa, where is has been the basis for improving estimates," an UNAIDS statement said.
Ramadoss also said that India would invest Rs. 115.85 billion ($2.8bn)in the next five years to fight HIV/AIDS.
As part of the National AIDS Control Programme-III, the money would go into prevention, care, support and treatment, capacity building, and strategic information management.