By Rajiv Khanna, IANS
Ahmedabad : Unlike five years ago when communal tensions were at their peak, the Gujarat elections in December would be fought mainly over issues concerning the state’s development, analysts say.
Although the opposition and rights group continue to harp on Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s record during the 2002 communal violence, the attraction for the voters is mainly economic and social issues.
“In the election campaign, charges and counter-charges between the BJP (Bharatiya Janata party) and the Congress will be on the issues of development and security,” said Achyut Yagnik, a social scientist here.
“While Narendra Modi and the BJP will be flaunting the work done on the development front, the Congress will be out to prove them wrong and convince the public that the claims are mere propaganda,” Yagnik told IANS.
Gujarat will have a two-phased election to pick a new 182-member legislature. Although Modi is faced with unprecedented dissidence, he is confident of leading the BJP to another win. But the Congress says it will oust him this time.
While the BJP is expected to play up the figures of investments promised and realised in the Vibrant Gujarat investor summits of the past five years, Yagnik said the Congress is sure to accuse the government of favouring five industrial houses while ignoring the interests of the farming community.
Said social activist D.N. Rath, a coordinator of the Movement for Secular Democracy (MSD)” “The issue during the campaign should primarily be development versus non-development, vibrant versus not-so-vibrant Gujarat.”
Political commentator Digant Oza also believes the issues of “bijli-sadak-pani” (electricity, roads and water) could be the dominant electoral issue.
“The government has been claiming that it has provided 24-hour uninterrupted supply of power to rural areas, But the fact is power is available only in the rural households and not in the fields where it is required the most. This is expected to be the opposition line,” Oza said.
“The BJP will talk about bringing the Narmada river waters to the parched areas of the state. Its critics are expected to point out that while the water is there, the canal network required for its distribution is missing.”
Oza, who has been working on water scarcity problems in the state, said that only 22 percent of the canal network for the ambitious but controversial Narmada dam project has been laid so far.
A campaign dominated by developmental themes would be in stark contrast to the 2002 assembly elections, fought amid communal polarisation in the aftermath of the train burning at Godhra and ethnic strife that claimed 1,169 lives.
Modi faced widespread criticism from civil society over the handling of violence even as sections of the Hindu community saw in him a new Hindutva leader.
In the eventuality, Modi led the BJP to a thumping victory. The BJP won 127 of the 182 seats.
Some analysts say the election campaign may still have a communal tinge.
“This time religion will figure only in the backdrop of the speeches. The only (religious) issue expected to be taken up vocally will be the Sethusamudram (shipping canal) controversy,” Yagnik said.
The Congress-led central government took back an affidavit filed in the Supreme Court regarding an upcoming shipping canal in the sea dividing Sri Lanka and India that questioned that challenged the existence of Hindu god Ram.
The BJP contends that the canal would damage Ram Sethu, a so-called bridge between India and Sri Lanka that many believe was built during the Ram era. But scientists say there is no archaeological evidence to support the claim.
Oza too felt the BJP was likely to woo Hindu voters by raising the Ram Sethu issue.
Rath added: “I believe religion will figure in election speeches but in a covert way.
“Religious and communal issues were largely missing even during the last parliamentary elections held in 2004. So there is no question of their being a prime issue now.”
Modi will have to respond not only to the Congress but also to a substantial section of his own party that has been in rebellion against him for the better part of his term.
For example, Keshubhai Patel, his predecessor who has been the rallying point for BJP rebels, has underlined the need for proper road links to Hindu pilgrim destinations like Somnath and Dwarka in Saurashtra region.
“Keshubhai, who is a MP, has said that he is willing to provide funds from the MP’s Local Area Development scheme for this purpose if the state government is unwilling to carry out the job,” said Oza.
Suresh Mehta, another former chief minister who is a vocal leader of the dissidents, charges that Gujarat, known for safety it offers to citizens, is no longer safe thanks to Modi.
“Narendra Modi says that Gujarat is a very safe place for women, for children and for society. I want to contest this. I want to say that the place has become unsafe under his rule,” Mehta told IANS.