By Rajeev Khanna, IANS
Ahmedabad : No person has dominated Gujarat politics as much as Chief Minister Narendra Modi, and the coming assembly elections will be focussed on his persona, says scholar and Gujarat expert Ghanshyam Shah.
Ironically, if Modi were to lead the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to an electoral win, it would only prove that economic forces can overcome the emotive appeal of Hindutva, which he once openly championed, Shah said in an interview.
“It is for the first time that an election (in the state) is centred on an individual who cannot be ignored. Such a personality has never dominated Gujarati society,” Shah told IANS.
“Whether he wins or loses, the result will have far reaching impact on Gujarati society.”
Shah, among India’s leading social scientists, is widely respected for his understanding of Gujarat. Once a researcher in Surat, he went on to teach in New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University. Now, his time is consumed by his passion – interpretation of socio-political trends in Gujarat.
Asked to explain Modi’s personality, Shah said: “He is one man who in his meticulous and mechanistic way has mesmerised urban society that is educated and has lots of exposure. In case he wins, he will spend at least two years to teach lessons to his opponents.”
What if he loses?
“It will narrow down the politics in the state. The result will have to be accepted. After all, despite all the opposition, civil society had to accept his victory in the 2002 elections,” Shah answered.
“But if he wins, it will be an ironic indication that Hindutva forces can be overcome by economic forces. That is his strategy, why he is constantly talking about economic development rather than Hindutva.”
With Gujarat set to elect a new legislature on Dec 11 and 16, opposition is mounting against Modi, an iconic BJP leader who has been at the helm of affairs in the state for seven years.
Having taken charge in 2001 when the ruling BJP’s popularity was steadily dipping, Modi led the party to a thumping win in the December 2002 polls on the strength of a Hindu-Muslim divide sparked by that year’s communal violence.
But as dissidents in the BJP step up their campaign against Modi, joined by a section of Hindu holy men who once were the chief minister’s cheerleaders, it is clear the BJP is up against a solid wall. The Congress is buoyant.
Modi is equally confident of retaining power. He is dismissing the rebels as of no consequence.
Shah said the BJP’s character in Gujarat would change whether or not the party wins the elections.
“If Modi wins, it will have an adverse impact on the party in terms of its cadres and the ideology of Hindutva. If he loses, there will be the message that it has become like any other mass based party where simple ideology is not as important as the secular economic issues.
“There will be a message to Gujarati society that the BJP as an ideological party will be no more.”
Shah added that Gujarat’s voters cannot be mobilised any more on the emotive issue that dominated elections five years ago — Hindu-Muslim divide fuelled by a train burning in 2002 that killed 59 passengers and sparked the worst Hindu-Muslim violence the state has ever seen.
“It is the compulsion of politics,” Shah explained. “People cannot be mobilised on emotive issues for long. That cannot sustain. Modi has experienced this and has hence raised material issues.”
What about issues like Narmada waters and other such issues?
“They will remain. It is not indicative of Gujarati parochialism. All these years Modi built on Gujarati identity and Gujarati pride, and he is now playing on that. (But) all his economic policies are against the Hindutva concept of Swadeshi (self-reliance).”
What about those victims of the 2002 violence who have not got justice so far?
Shah answered: “Neither Modi nor the Congress will touch the issue of Hindus and Muslims. The Congress has no courage to do this. Even the BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) will not touch it.
“We have to accept that most victims have gone back to their homes. Another thing that needs to be noticed is that in the last two years civil society in Gujarat has gained space. This was not there before.
“They have been able to hold demonstrations, exhibitions, seminars. People from institutions like the Sahitya Parishad have started taking positions and Gujarat Vidyapith is giving space to civil society. This was not possible two years back.”
(Rajeev Khanna can be contacted at [email protected])