By Sudeshna Sarkar, IANS
Kathmandu : Nepal’s fragile peace process is sliding towards a new abyss with confrontation between the ruling parties and the Maoists looming large and still no indication that the long festival break has forged a reconciliation.
“As of now, chances of a compromise are not bright,” senior Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai told IANS Wednesday, four days before a critical debate on his party’s key demands resumes in parliament.
“Efforts are still on to reach an understanding. But if they fail, the peace process will be in grave jeopardy.”
On Monday, after a hiatus of nearly a fortnight, over 300 MPs will resume discussing the two major Maoist demands tabled by their spokesman and former information and communications minister Krishna Bahadur Mahara.
The Maoists are pressing for the immediate abolition of King Gyanendra’s throne through a vote in the interim parliament. They also want a fully proportional system when the twice-stalled election finally takes place.
Bhattarai said if the ruling coalition agreed to concede one of the two demands, his party could compromise on the other.
However, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala remains under mounting international pressure not to decide the king’s fate in parliament.
India, Nepal’s biggest trading partner, has warned that it would consider an election the only credible verdict on monarchy. Earlier this month, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sent former foreign secretary Shyam Saran as his special envoy to reinforce the warning.
The other Maoist demand is being rejected by Koirala for fear that it would affect his Nepali Congress party’s prospects at the polls.
Though the Nepali Congress won the last general election in 1999, the difference between it and its traditional rival, the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (UML), was small.
A fully proportional election would see the UML and Maoists dig into Nepali Congress seats. It would also lead to greater representation for marginalized communities and decentralisation of power, which Koirala has been resisting despite agreeing on paper to the rising demand for a federal government.
To implement their demands, the rebels need at least a two-thirds majority — or 218 votes — in parliament. However, that would be impossible unless they can win over a section of the Nepali Congress, the biggest party in the house with 132 MPs.
“We have tried to implement our demands through a three-pronged struggle — via the government, the interim legislature and street movements,” Bhattarai said.
Unable to force the ruling alliance to heed their call, the guerrillas quit the government last month.
“If we are unable to push our demand through parliament, we might be forced to quit it and concentrate solely on a street struggle,” Bhattarai warned.
The Maoists are the second-largest party in parliament with 84 MPs. They also have the support of three more legislators from smaller Left parties.
If the rebels quit parliament, which they joined this year ending a 10-year armed uprising, it will spell a period of fresh disruption for Nepal with paralysing street protests and shutdowns.