By Faraz Ahmad, IANS
New Delhi : The central committee of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) meeting in Kolkata Sep 28-29 is likely to discuss the prospect of a mid-term poll – a possibility after its ultimatum to the Manmohan Singh government over the India-US nuclear deal.
The meet is being held ostensibly to chalk out the programme for the 19th party congress, which is slated for the first week of April next year in Coimbatore.
But the growing chasm between the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and the Left parties supporting it from outside has “forced us to look at alternatives”, a CPI-M source told IANS.
The four Left parties led by the CPI-M have threatened to withdraw their support to the government if it goes ahead with “operationalising” the nuclear deal, while a UPA-Left panel has been constituted to iron out the differences.
Since “the government is any way proceeding with the operationalisation (of the nuclear deal), a time has to come when we have to show that we are not issuing empty threats,” said the CPI-M insider. The party feels that the Left parties may have to announce their pullout some time in late October.
The other three constituents of the Left Front, the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), the All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) and the Communist Party of India (CPI), have already individually favoured withdrawing support to the government.
It may now be the turn of the CPI-M, the largest and main constituent of the Left Front, to take the call.
But before the CPI-M actually decides to pull the plug, it has to discuss threadbare the logistics of the next general election, including their dates and possible new allies, said party sources.
“That is the un-stated agenda of the Kolkata meet,” said the CPI-M insider.
Choices for fresh allies could be difficult as after withdrawing support to the Congress-led UPA government the Left cannot be seen aligning with it directly or indirectly, the party source pointed out.
In the 2004 elections the Left had a direct “seat adjustment” with the Congress in Andhra Pradesh and some other states and indirect alliance with it through the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra – all of which were aligning with the Left on one side and the Congress on the other in the name of unity of secular forces.
If the next general election is held as a consequence of the Left pullout, “there is no question of having any alliance with any party, be it the RJD or the NCP, if it has an alliance with the Congress,” said the CPI-M source.
However, in the case of the DMK, the CPI-M hopes that Tamil Nadu’s ruling party may drift further away from the Congress due to the row over the Sethusamudram Shipping Canal Project.
In the CPI-M’s assessment, the DMK will be under pressure from its core constituency not to compromise its stance on the project that has been opposed by many Hindu groups, while the Congress may not be able to aggressively back it on this issue.
This dichotomy may eventually lead to the severance of Congress-DMK ties before the next elections. In that case, the CPI-M will be happy to align with the DMK.
As for the RJD, the CPI-M acknowledges that the most trusted ally of Congress president Sonia Gandhi is RJD chief Lalu Prasad and has already abandoned the idea of aligning with that party in the next general election.
The party is also not too hopeful of NCP chief Sharad Pawar breaking his alliance with the Congress in Maharashtra and so the Left may have to go it alone in that state, the CPI-M source indicated.
On the other hand, an alliance with the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and with the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh is near certain though it is not likely to be spelt out at this stage, the source said.