By Sarwar Kashani, IANS
Srinagar : With a steep fall in violent incidents and militants on the run, peace may be finally descending on the Kashmir valley. But after years of bloodshed, people are wary though hopeful.
Officials who claim the top militant leadership has been wiped out from the valley are being cautious about predicting peace while locals are keeping their fingers crossed in terror-hit Jammu and Kashmir.
“If the figures on violent incidents are any indication, peace doesn’t seem too far,” said Ghulam Nabi Rather, a college teacher.
However, Rather also sounded sceptical about the lull. “I’m keeping my fingers crossed and praying this is not a case of silent waters running deep,” he said.
According to official sources, violent incidents in 2007 declined by a little less than 35 percent as compared to 2006, even though security forces are continuing to engage guerrillas in frequent gunfights in the valley.
Nearly 475 militants were killed in 2007 in around 500 one-on-one gun battles, official sources told IANS.
About 1,000 violent incidents occurred in 2007, according to official sources, who said militant-initiated violence has been declining constantly and it was the security forces that initiated battles against the guerrillas by conducting surprise raids.
“If you study the trend of violent incidents in 2007, you will find militants are no longer capable of striking at will like they did previously,” a police official said on condition of anonymity.
“Incidents have fallen from 1,667 in 2006 to 1,092 in 2007,” he said quoting official figures.
Violence in summer capital Srinagar has “declined by 40 percent and furthermore in the city area it has come down by nearly 60 percent as compared to 2006”, said the official.
According to the official, only 225 to 250 trained militants of various outfits are currently active in the Kashmir Valley.
“But they have managed to garner over ground support from nearly 600 activists,” the official added. He said the top Kashmiri militant leadership had either been killed or arrested.
On Jan 30, police killed four militants of the Hizbul Mujahideen, including its district commander, in south Kashmir, Sajad Bhat.
“With the killing of the district commander of the Hizbul Mujahideen along with his aides in Wednesday’s encounter, the Kulgam belt is almost free of militants,” said S.M. Sahai, Kashmir’s inspector general of police.
According to Sahai, the militants were less active now and south Kashmir, once a hotbed of militancy and the den of the Hizbul Mujahideen, might soon see “the end of terror”.
Earlier in December, police arrested most wanted militant and Hizbul Mujahideen’s operational chief Nisar Ahmed Bhat alias Gazi Misbah ud din and his deputy Tajamul Islam. The arrest was never confirmed officially. However, sources said the guerrillas were in police custody.
“Militants are of course on the run and this has become possible because of improved local intelligence due to public support,” Sahai told IANS.
But analysts said while the trend is encouraging, there was no room for complacency.
“You never know, this might be a lull before the storm. The figures are very encouraging but there is no need to feel complacent. One must remember that the (assembly) elections are ahead and it’s feared that violence may shoot up,” said G.M. Bhat, a former police officer.
(Sarwar Kashani can be contacted at [email protected])