By KUNA,
London : If Tehrans nuclear programme is unchecked, there is reason for concern that it could in time prompt a regional cascade of proliferation among Tehrans neighbours, according to a warning by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) here Tuesday.
Launching a new dossier “Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East in the shadow of Iran”, IISS Director General and Chief Executive Dr John Chipman said that for some states, such as Saudi Arabia, an Iranian nuclear weapon would present “a direct and dire threat”.
For others such as Egypt and Turkey the threat is indirect and more tied to concerns about the balance of power, the dossier by the leading defence think tank pointed out.
If any one of Irans neighbours were to seek to acquire nuclear weapons in response, this would put additional pressure on others to do the same, because of the intra-regional security and status considerations, the study cautioned.
It noted that a proliferation cascade will become more likely if Israel felt obliged to relinquish its long-standing doctrine of nuclear “opacity or ambiguity” whereby it refuses to confirm or deny any aspect of its nuclear activities, as this would increase the pressure on Egypt and perhaps other Arab states to seek their own nuclear deterrents, the dossier outlined.
So far none of the new nuclear aspirants in the region has yet been known to talk even privately about seeking nuclear weapons, but the Institute said what they want is the human and technical infrastructure associated with nuclear-energy programmes in order to provide counter balance to Iran, both by laying the ground for a possible future security hedge and bestowing national prestige in the context of historic rivalries.
IISS noted that in the span of the 11-months between February 2006 and January 2007 at least 13 countries in the Middle East announced new or revised plans to pursue or explore civilian nuclear energy.
Each of the new nuclear aspirant states announced its decision in terms of electricity needs, energy diversification and the economic benefits of nuclear power, the dossier recalled.
They spoke as well of the need to conserve oil and gas supplies for export earnings and of the high energy requirement of sea water desalination to address growing water shortages, it added.
Turning to the Gulf Cooperation Council, the report said that the six GCC states are currently undertaking a joint feasibility study into a nuclear energy programme.
In addition, certain GCC states have expressed interest in developing their own national programmes, the most obvious example is the United Arab Emirates, which has signed a nuclear framework agreement with France, consulted with French companies about the construction of reactors, signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the US, and published a White Paper on its nuclear-energy development.
The GCC in addition said that its announcement of a nuclear project was not a direct reaction to Irans nuclear activities.
The IISS on the other hand maintained that the proximity of the GCC states to Iran, and their concern over Washingtons future posture in the Gulf, made them eager both to avoid military conflict in the region and to protect themselves against a future Iranian nuclear weapons capability.
“Afraid of suffering adverse consequences both if Iran and the US clash or if they reconcile, the Gulf states must balance competing influences”, the Institute suggested.
In answer to a question by KUNA, the author of the report Dr Mark Fitzpatrick, a senior fellow for non-proliferation at IISS, said that the Institute said if Iran continued to enrich and reprocess uranium on a large scale it could “theoretically” be able to produce a nuclear weapon by the year 2009.
But he noted that in practical terms, Iran would not be able to enrich uranium of a highly developed nature before 2012, and hence it could probably be capable to produce nuclear weapons by that time.
However, he noted that this issue is not the focus of the dossier.
Fitzpatrick maintained that the new Western offer to Iran, which was revealed during the London meeting of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council foreign ministers plus Germany recently, was an expanded version of the offer made to Tehran two years ago.
The expert believed that the new offer involved more details about bigger incentives to Tehran, including state-of-the-art nuclear technology for peaceful purposes through Irans cooperation with the international community.
Meanwhile, the dossier said in reference to Israel, that the fundamentals of Israels nuclear capability and policies, though never officially confirmed, are accepted as fact throughout the world.
Israel initiated a nuclear programme in the mid-1950s and crossed the weapons threshold about a decade later, IISS stated.
Today remaining outside the non-proliferation treaty, Israel is considered to be “a defacto nuclear-weapons state with an advanced and sizeable arsenal”.
On Israels response to the looming threat of a nuclear-armed Iran, the study said it is fundamentally distinct from that of its other Middle Eastern neighbours.
Israel is alone in publicly characterising a nuclear Iran as a threat to the very survival of itself, IISS said.