By IANS,
New York: With a population growth three times that of China, India is set to become the most populous nation in the world by 2025, according to new data released by the US Census Bureau.
“The population growth rate in India currently is about 1.4 percent, nearly three times that of China,” said the bureau, based on the population estimates and projections for as many as 227 countries.
“India’s total fertility rate — the number of births a woman is expected to have in her lifetime — is currently estimated at 2.7 and projected to decline slowly, and that is driving population growth in the country.”
In contrast, China’s fertility rate was estimated at 2.2 in 1990, 1.8 in 1995 and less than 1.6 since 2000. The country’s fertility rate is currently half a birth below that of the US at more than two births per woman.
“One of the consequences to China’s declining fertility rate is that the number of new entrants to China’s labour force may be near its peak. The population ages 20-24 is projected to peak at 124 million in 2010,” the bureau said.
“This peak is earlier than in India, which is projected to reach 116 million in 2024,” said the bureau.
“These changes in China’s age structure may affect its economic growth and competitiveness in the world market,” said Daniel Goodkind, demographer in the Census Bureau’s Population Division.
The bureau estimates India’s population to touch 1.396 billion by 2025 and China to reach 1.395 billion. By then, Russia and Japan are expected to drop from the list of 10 most-populous nations, while Ethiopia and Mexico will be new entrants.
“Given that China and India together account for 37 percent of the world’s population, their demographic trends have major implications for worldwide population change.”
The US Census Bureau’s estimates of the population of top 10 countries in 2009 are:
1. China – 1,323,591,583
2. India – 1,156,897,766
3. United States – 307,212,123
4. Indonesia – 240,271,522
5. Brazil – 198,739,269
6. Pakistan – 174,578,558
7. Bangladesh – 156,050,883
8. Nigeria – 149,229,090
9. Russia – 140,041,247
10 Japan – 127,078,679
For 2025, the bureau’s estimates of the population of top 10 countries are:
1. India – 1,396,046,308
2. China – 1,394,638,699
3. United States – 357,451,620
4. Indonesia – 278,502,882
5. Brazil – 231,886,946
6. Pakistan – 217,926,995
7. Nigeria – 197,222,936
8. Bangladesh – 192,976,328
9. Ethiopia – 140,139,507
10. Mexico – 130,198,692