By DPA,
Singapore : French bank BNP Paribas has predicted a faster Asian economic recovery next year, citing aggressive government spending and region-wide interest rate cuts, according to a news report Thursday.
The scale of the global policy response, monetary and fiscal, should ensure the recovery is more V-shaped, indicating a steep rise after a decline, than a slower, U-shaped recovery, said BNP Paribas economist Richard Iley.
“In many instances, economies will experience a six- to seven-percentage point swing in growth rates,” the Straits Times quoted Iley saying in the bank’s report titled Asia: Apocalypse Now.
The global manufacturing cycle was likely to improve even before the US economy stabilizes at year-end which would bring about a “reasonably vibrant rebound” across Asia, he said.
This recovery in manufacturing would be held up by the “substantial fiscal boosts” and increasingly loose monetary policy stances in the region, Iley added.
But things are to get a lot worse for Asia before getting better, the report warned.
Singapore’s economy, for example is expected to shrink by 2.8 percent in 2009 before bouncing back with a 4.4 percent growth rate the following year.