By Mumtaz Alam Falahi, TwoCircles.net,
Less than six months in the Assembly elections, the political mood in the state of Bihar is not very clear. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar may again come to power or may not. Caste combinations, as of now, seem to be in his favor. The state has seen some development under his regime but not as much as projected or claimed by the government. Some say nothing has been done for the poor. As for minorities, very little has been done for them. They are still in very bad condition. This is what you get when you talk to Muslim intellectuals in the state.
Political mood
It is not very clear. Mainly there are four players in Bihar: the ruling alliance of JD-U and BJP, RJD and LJP, Congress and some splinter groups. The fourth have little significance, so there will be a triangular fight between JD-U+BJP, RJD+LJP and Congress, says Prof Abuzar Kamaluddin, Principal, M P Sinha Science College in Muzaffarpur.
“What could be the mood of people is very difficult to predict because in Bihar, politics is confined to caste considerations and elections are fought on the basis of caste and money power,” says Prof Kamaluddin who has also served as Vice Chairman of Bihar Intermediate Education Council.
“What masses think and how they are expected to behave in the elections and what media say about the government are two divergent things,” says Arshad Ajmal, eminent political and social activist. The results of the last by-elections of 18 Assembly seats in November 2009 were very different from the ones in the Assembly elections in 2005 and Lok Sabha elections in April 2009 as far as the performance of the ruling party is concerned. The JD-U of Nitish lost on many seats, but the media did not notice or highlight this changing mood of the people, adds Ajmal who heads Patna-based Al-Khair Charitable Trust.
Maulana Anisur Rahman Qasmi, secretary, Imarat Shariah (Bihar, Jharkhand and Orissa), also says the picture is not clear now. “All secular parties have started consolidating and expanding their support base. It is difficult to say which of the four main parties will be winner. Muslims and Dalits are very crucial for parties. When the two communities cast 2-5% more votes in favor of any party, the number of their MLAs is increased and the party gets more chances to form the government,” says Maulana Qasmi.
Caste combinations
In elections in Bihar, caste is a crucial factor. Along with money and muscle power, caste combinations play key role. In the last four and half years, Nitish has done hard work to woo some backward castes including minorities. He is believed to have support of Kurmis, Bhumihar, a considerable section of Dalits and other backwards. Are the present caste combinations in his favor?
“Nitish Kumar will certainly get leverage because he has made a good caste combination and is trying to win over certain other sections. He is trying to woo minorities also. Minorities have also soft corner for him,” says Prof Abuzar Kamaluddin.
Agrees Arshad Ajmal. “Which political alliance will have an edge in the coming elections, will depend on caste combination. In this respect, Nitish will have an edge.”
Development – or just propaganda
Prof Kamaluddin sees some serious development work. “On social front and governance side, Nitish Kumar is doing good job. Economy has registered a phenomenal growth. Conditions in Bihar have considerably changed. Bihar has perennial state of backwardness. Nothing can be done in a short span of time,” he says. He further adds: “The very psyche of Bihar is not progressive. Here is casteism, here is communalism, here is corruption and crime. All these combined have compelled Bihar to remain in the state of inertia, in the state of backwardness. However, Bihar has improved a lot in this period.”
Ajmal, has some different views. “Nitish has failed on pro-people programs like NREGA, NRHM, and education, but the media do not highlight the eroding popularity of Nitish. Though some concrete works are underway there is no program for the poor population even in the urban areas let alone the rural areas.”
On the growth claim of Bihar government, he said: “There has not been any progress in the primary sector of the economy – goods and services, agriculture, industry, manufacturing, mining, fishing – this sector is still stagnant. We are facing a government which is led by concrete and contractors and this is called development.”
Hasnain Arij, a Jamia Millia Islamia alumnus and social activist in Muzaffarpur, echoes Ajmal. “Where is the development? All developments are on paper. Muslims are also in very bad condition. The educated people have no work. Muslims are very down here. Only 2-3% are in government jobs. No political party, JD-U or Congress thinks about it.”
Minority welfare
After saying that the state has witnessed some development, Prof Kamaluddin admits that very few things have been done for the minorities in the state by Nitish government.
“Concretely very few things have been done to improve the lot of minority and to improve their participation in the decision making process,” he says.
Ajmal blasts Nitish government claim about development work for Muslims.
“Take the budgetary allocation for minorities in Nitish government. The population of SC/ST is 15.05%in Bihar and minorities are 16.05%. But the SC/STs are getting several hundred times more budgetary allocation than minorities,” he says.
“His good intention for the minority may not be questioned. However, he lacks creativity or political will to do something big for the community,” Ajmal adds.
“True, there are two top Muslim civil officers in two top posts of Bihar: Afzal Amanullah, Cabinet Secretary, Amir Subhani, Home Secretary. Amanullah held and Subhani is holding the post of secretary of Minority Welfare Department as independent charge. What have they done for the community? Take the case of minority scholarship scheme. Even the disbursement for 2007-2008 has not been done so far,” Ajmal says.
Maulana Anisur Rahman Qasmi, however, says some development work has been done in minority areas also, and this will increase the percentage of Muslim votes for Nitish.
In the last Assembly elections a section of Muslims voted in favor of Nitish Kumar though he was allied with a communal party, will the community come out in full support this time?
“There may be a little change in the thinking of the community as there has not been any discrimination in development works. Muslim areas too witnessed development work. Muslims have inclination towards Nitish but because his alliance with BJP, they hesitate to come forward,” says Maulana Qasmi who was made chairman of Bihar Haj Committee in August last year.
No communal violence
Communal harmony or no communal violence played a big rule in forming several successive governments of Lalu Prasad Yadav until 2004. Nitish Kumar has also been able to contain the communal as well as caste violence. So will he get support of Muslims on this ground?
“Nitish government is very much successful in containing any sort of violence. Not only there has not been any communal violence in this period, but there hasn’t been any caste carnage or caste violence also. And relatively crime has also declined in this period. So people in general have some positive opinion about it. Safety and security is prime concern of every individual. People are not scared now in Bihar. Minorities are also safe. They don’t feel any fear. In this matter, Bihar government has done a commendable job. Certainly if election is fought on the issue of security, Nitish will get benefit,” says Prof Abuzar Kamaluddin.
Arshad Ajmal agrees that communal violence did not take place in Nitish period and there is no sense of insecurity. “But the communal parties have been free in the regime to communally polarize the society,” he says. “As BJP is part of the government, ABVP was given free hand to polarize the people on the issue of AMU branch in Kishanganj. What happened in 1977 with Jan Sangh in the govt – recruitment of their men in information & broadcasting ministry and education ministry and the result we are seeing today — similar has happened in Bihar in this regime. Until he is with BJP we can’t say he is free from the pressure of the communal party,” says Ajmal.
Strategy of Muslims
“The community should become politically more mature. For their rights, they should hold one-to-one talk with secular parties. Until they develop the habit of direct talk with the parties, their success will be incomplete,” says Maulana Anisur Rahman Qasmi.
As for agenda, he says the implementation of recommendations of Sachar Committee and Ranganath Mishra Commission should be our sole demand.
Mohd Ehtesham Hussain, Dy Director, Social Security Department at Muzaffarpur, says: “Majority of Muslims are politically mature. However, how much selfless are those coming forward to guide the community politically is a question mark. If Muslims were represented in a right way they would have not been so backward in Bihar. Those who claim to be leader of the community are solving their own problems in the name of solving the problems of the community.
Will Muslims vote for Nitish? “It is a difficult question. Muslims are always in a dilemma. They have been exploited by political parties. Muslims are in search for a good leader or party. They don’t believe in Nitish Kumar. They think when he can shake hand with Narendra Modi how can they have faith on him,” says Hasnain Arij.
However, Prof Abuzar Kamaluddin says fair representation of Muslims in the elections and their participation in decision making process is more important than the results of the elections.
“What is more important than who will lose and who will win is if minorities will get fair representation in the coming elections or not. In every election the representation of minority has decreased. At this point of time it is the lowest. And there is little concern on the part of political parties to improve their participation. Without proper participation of the minority the inclusive nature of growth and empowerment cannot take place and Bihar will remain lopsided. When there is talk of increasing representation of backward classes, women and ST, SC, there is no talk about Muslims.”
Formation of a Muslim political party
Prof Abuzar Kamaluddin says: “This is not right time for formation of a Muslim political party. Rather there is a need for leaders to work on grass root levels and offer an agenda before the people. They need to win the heart of the people.” He, however, admits that Muslim political leaders are not truly representing the community in secular parties.
“Muslim political leaders are representative of their party to the community, not of the community to the party. So they talk what their leaders tell them to talk. There is no mass leader in the community. Mostly do the politics of pleasing leader of this party or that party and in turn eye to get a seat in Rajya Sabha or Vidhan Parishad,” says Prof Kamaluddin.
Mohd Ehtesham Hussain also rejects the idea of a Muslim political party. “There is no need for a Muslim party. Such things will more harm the community than benefit. Rather, honest people should come forward and join political parties to solve the problem of the community,” says Hussain, 1983 batch commissioned officer.