By Mumtaz Alam Falahi, TwoCircles.net,
Patna: With rift widening between JD-U and BJP, ruling partners of NDA in Bihar, smiles are returning on the faces of secular parties and alliances, and with this hope is getting stronger for more Muslim representation in the coming October 2010 Assembly elections here. The vote of Muslims will be decisive in 60 Assembly constituencies out of 243, but will they get seats even in proportion to their population (16.5%) i.e. 38-40 is difficult to say.
Muslim reservation rally by Jamiat Ulema in Patna on April 1, 2010
According to an unofficial, apolitical assessment of Assembly constituency population (2001 Census) in the light of delimitation, Muslim population will range from 18-74% in 60 seats, making them decisive vote. In many of them the candidacy of community member cannot be ignored.
Muslims constitute 16.5% of the state population. Accordingly, their number in the Assembly should be 38-40 but generally they are around 20-25. In the current Assembly of 243 seats there are only 17 Muslims – it is 6.99% of the total strength of the House.
Muslims representation in Bihar Assembly is poorer than theirs in other three Houses namely Vidhan Parishad, Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. In the Legislative Council (Vidhan Parishad), there are 7 Muslims among 75 Members, that is 9.33%. A little better situation is in the Lok Sabha compared to Assembly, the state counterpart of Lok Sabha. Here out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state, only three are represented by Muslim candidates, i.e. 7.5%. However, Rajya Sabha much better representation of Muslims from Bihar. Among 16 Rajya Sabha Members from the state, there are three Muslims, making it 18.75%.
According to the assessment, Muslims constitute 74% of the population in Kochadhaman and Amaur Assembly constituencies. They are 69% in Jokihat and 65% in Balrampur. In Manihari they are 41%, in Sikta 30% and in Narkatiyaganj 29%.
Besides, the 60 Assembly seats where Muslims between 17-74% population, there are 50 other seats where they will be between 10-17%.
But the success for more representation will depend on two factors: number of seats political parties will offer to the community, and unity within the community for tactical voting.