By IANS,
Singapore : The Chinese economy will grow by 9.28 percent in 2011 if the US can stay out of a double-dip recession and the eurozone can steer itself clear of a sovereign debt crisis this year, economists from China’s Xiamen University and the National University of Singapore said in their latest forecasts.
The China’s Macroeconomic Outlook 2011-2012 and Policy Simulations report, which was released Saturday, also projected that the consumer price index (CPI) inflation will hit 5.34 percent for the full year.
It forecast a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 8.91 percent and a CPI growth of 4.93 percent for 2012, reported Xinhua.
“We think that China’s GDP growth will inevitably slow down at the stage it is due to weak recovery in the external markets and the macroeconomic policies gradually coming back to normal in China,” the report said.
“The Chinese economy is most likely to grow at a range between 9 percent and 8 percent for some time to come,” said Li Wenpu, an economist from Xiamen University.
Chen Kang, professor of economics from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said that the forecasts were based on “prudently optimistic” assumptions that the US economy will grow by 1.7 percent this year and further bounce back to achieve a normal speed of growth and that the eurozone will stay out of a sovereign debt crisis this year and slows down a bit next year.
The interest rates in China are assumed to stay stable this year and the money supply grows by 16 percent this year and 17 percent in 2012, respectively.
The CPI inflation will also be lower at 3.95 percent, the report said.
“Given the complex factors leading to the inflation, it will take quite some time for it to be stabilised. The inflation will stay high at 4 percent to 5.4 percent this year and next year,” it said.
Xiamen University and the National University of Singapore have been releasing their forecasts for the Chinese economy twice a year since 2006. They also partnered with the Economic Information Daily of China to release the forecasts in China.