By Sheikh Qayoom, IANS,
Srinagar: A scientist who worked with US geophysicist Roger Bilham on a new report predicting a mega temblor in the Kashmir Himalayas says quake preparedness is a must and it is imperative to ban construction in marshes, wetlands and high slope areas in the valley.
“Risk assessment and then disaster preparedness are more important than disaster response,” professor M.I. Bhat told IANS.
“Our preparedness should be through mass awareness about earthquake hazards through education in the construction industry, through a legislative ban on construction in marshes, wetlands and high slope areas in the valley which are vulnerable to high seismic wave amplification.
“We must start retro-fitting in existing structures and ensure strict compliance and enforcement of proper building codes,” Bhat asserted.
From 2007 onwards, Bhat worked with Bilham on his study forecasting an impending mega quake in the Kashmir Himalayas with a possible magnitude of 9 on the Richter scale. The study’s findings – it says this quake could kill around 300,000 people in Srinagar alone – were published in local newspapers last week and have spread fear in the valley.
“I wish such reports were not carried on the front pages by the newspapers. This only generates fear. But there is no denying the fact that an earthquake as forecast is overdue. Given the data available, there is a heavy possibility that the next mega quake is round the corner,” said Bhat.
Bhat said, “Geologically speaking, the earthquake does not cause any destruction as such. It is the structures that man builds which actually cause the destruction and loss of life during an earthquake. Unfortunately, the layout of our residential colonies, the building codes and other allied facts are the most worrying aspect of our study.”
Bhat said historical records indicate the last mega earthquake occurred in the valley in 1555. “Since no Richter scale measurements are available on the 1555 earthquake, the amount of destruction indicated in the records allows an assumption that the quake could have been of around 7.8 magnitude.”
The study believes that the mega quake could be triggered by the tectonic activity of Ladakh’s Zanskar mountain range rather than the Pir Panjal range.
“The assumption was that the earthquakes are mostly generated in the Pir Panjal Mountain range. Once we got the data from the Kashmir Himalayas from Global Positioning Systems instruments we began installing in the region since 2007, it showed that the tectonic blocks from the northern side (Ladakh) are showing a southward movement at the rate of around 9-16 mm per year. Whereas the GPS installed in the Valley shows movements at the rate of 4 mm per year. The real trouble is that the missing 5-11 mm movement is getting blocked somewhere along some fault on the Zanskar side that should obviously cause stress accumulation which is waiting to be released in the form of a mega earthquake.”
Bhat, who has worked on the Kashmir Himalayas’ seismic sensitivity, also exploded the popular myth that the Shankaracharya Hillock in the middle of Srinagar city is a dormant volcano that might become active in the future.
“The hillock is made of lava that erupted tens of millions of years back and has nothing to do with any future volcanic activity,” he said.
Around 40,000 people had died on both sides of the Line of Control in Kashmir when a quake struck the region in 2005.
(Sheikh Abdul Qayoom can be contacted at [email protected])