By Soroor Ahmed, TwoCircles.net,
Without taking any credit away from the National Democratic Alliance victory in Bihar one need not ignore some unique aspects of the results of 2010 Assembly election in the state. The Janata Dal (United)-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance with just 39.1 per cent votes managed to get around 85 per cent of seats––206 in the House of 243––while the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Lok Janshakti Party combine of Lalu Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan ended up getting just 10 per cent seats when they actually got over 25.3 per cent votes. RJD got 18.6 per cent votes while LJP 6.7 per cent. Congress, which got 8.37 per cent votes, won just four seats. How could this happen when even in 1952 and 1957 Bihar Assembly elections, the then ruling Congress did not win so much seats notwithstanding the fact that there was no formidable opposition party in the state then? Even in June 1977 post-Emergency Assembly election the then Janata Party could win only 214 out of 324 seats when the anti-Congress wave was sweeping all over north India. Even in the parliamentary election held just three months before the Janata Party won all the 54 seats in the state.
Interestingly, this time Independent candidates and smaller parties managed to garner about 27 per cent votes in the election yet they could win eight seats. Fragmentation of opposition votes is being attributed to this landslide victory of the NDA.
Now just imagine what would have happened had these Independent and smaller parties got, say around 20 per cent votes, and not 27 per cent and this seven per cent would have gone to the Janata Dal (United)-BJP combine. With 39.1 plus seven per cent more votes the party might have won all the 243 seats. Thus with just 45-46 per cent popular mandate a party or combination can win all the seats of any House. And with 25.3 per cent votes––as in the case of RJD-LJP here––an alliance may not even open its account. Now contrast this with other situation where parties with 25-26 per cent votes have ruled the states. This once again because of the division in opposition votes.
Though nobody is demanding the review of our electoral system or introduction of Proportional Representation system the fact is that we seriously need an appraisal. Never in India any party or combination has won so many seats with such small percentage of votes in any big Assembly––not that of Sikkim, Goa etc. Even in the 1984 parliamentary election held after the assassination of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi the Congress Party won 400-odd seats when it got about 50 per cent votes, that is about 10 per cent more than NDA this time in Bihar. But in that way the percentage of seats won was less than 75. In West Bengal Assembly election of 2006 too the Left Front managed to win around 80 per cent seats (235 out 294) when it got about 50 per cent votes.
A thumping majority of about 85 per cent in the state Assembly with mere 39.1 per cent votes tend to make any party or combination over-confident and over-bearing. The complete decimation of the opposition is certainly bad for democracy. The rank and file of the ruling combination or party––more than its leaders––often forget that more than 60 per cent of mass is not with them and that they have acquired so many seats just because of the vagaries of the electoral system. Similarly, a decimated opposition, even if the largest one of them got over 25 per cent votes, becomes a demoralised lot. Such an opposition cannot put up a great show on the floor of the Assembly.
It would not be appropriate to thrust two-party or three-party system in the country from above, but the Bihar election has certainly exposed the weakness of the presence of so many candidates. More than 27 per cent of votes got by Independent candidates and smaller parties have almost got wasted as it got translated into just eight seats. So after the Janata Dal (United)-BJP alliance, this group got largest number of votes, yet hardly any representation in the state Assembly.
The present scenario in Bihar is in contrast to West Bengal, which is going to election within a few months. Though there are too many parties there as well, but most of them come under one umbrella of the Left Front, while Congress and Trinamool are the other two. There is likelihood of the two coming together this time. In that way the contest may be straight and less chance of wastage of such a huge percentage of votes, such as 27 per cent in Bihar.