By Soroor Ahmed, TwoCircles.net
A month after demoentisation, politics in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh is in a state of flux. Till the first week of November. The Samajwadi Party was in a state of turmoil. The situation reached such a stage that political observers started conjecturing that an overwhelming number of its core support base, that is, Muslims and some other backward castes, may shift to Bahujan Samaj Party. Even Yadavs were finding themselves in a dilemma.
With 21.3 per cent Dalit and 19.3 per cent Muslim population, the BSP was looking quite hopeful.
The BJP was a bit perturbed over this development. While it was trying to woo some disgruntled SP votes, there was latent fear in the saffron party’s rank and file that the infighting in the Samajwadi Party would drive an overwhelming number of Muslim votes to the BSP. A divided Muslim votes––between the two main parties of UP––always helped the BJP.
But two developments in the first few days of November has somewhat changed the political scene in the state. First, chief minister Akhilesh Singh managed to emerge victorious after weeks of squabbling. In the last five years, he had managed to change the perception of many people about the Samajwadi Party. He had already carved out his place in the heart of youths cutting across the caste and community lines. Personally he remained above any controversy––this in itself is an achievement in today’s politics. He had an image of developmental-minded chief minister.
But the family feud gave him an opportunity to assert himself. In that hour of crisis a large number of youths––many of them were hitherto not the supporters of SP––rallied behind him, which silenced his critics within the party.
As if that was not enough, came the announcement of demoentisation on November 8.
Initially, it was trumpeted as another surgical strike against the black-money hoarders.
While in the beginning media in general and a section of experts backed the move, many others raised serious questions on its ramifications. Thus in spite of immense hardships, many people did back the move.
As the initial euphoria subsided and hardship continued to linger and multiply and independent economists started predicting fall in country’s growth rate, gloom started gripping the mind of even hardened BJP supporters. If that was not enough, on December 7 the Reserve Bank of India made it clear that there would be decline in growth rate.
A month later, queues outside banks and ATMs continue to remain long. About a hundred people have already died in the process of withdrawing or depositing their own hard-earned money. None of those who lost their lives were hoarding black money. Yet, the government announced no compensation to them. In fact it was not even apologetic. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while addressing a public meeting in Moradabad, went on to narrate how beggars would beg in cashless economy.
Uttar Pradesh, which has very fertile land––especially in Doab region between Ganga and Yamuna––as well as thousands of industries, especially in Noida, Ghaziabad, Kanpur, Lucknow, Agra, Aligarh, Meerut, Moradabad, Benaras was among the worst hit states after demonetisation.
Lakhs of workers have lost their jobs––temporarily or permanently. As thousands of industries were forced to close or cut down their production the demonetisation shattered the confidence of traders and investors, who are considered as the backbone of the BJP support base.
As ‘notebandi’ was announced in between the harvesting of kharif and sowing of rabi crops, the farmers were left high and dry. The farming communities had started distancing themselves from the BJP even before demoentisation because of, what critics call its anti-farmer policies. Neither the promise of increase in Minimum Support Price nor creation of new jobs were fulfilled. The November 8 decision drove them further away. This, in spite of the fact that several farming communities voted for Narendra Modi in 2014.
The BJP supporters tried to put up a brave face, but the repeated change in the government’s and RBI’s policy has confused them. If it was a campaign against black money then why was tax amnesty announced in the last week of November? Was the campaign against black money or creating cashless economy?
The party rank and file are not prepared to tackle all these issues. Gradually, many of them became indifferent. Even several BJP MPs, legislators, and Sangh Parivar ideologues like Govindacharya have started questioning the decision to scrap notes in such a haphazard manner.
As perception matters much in politics, the BJP now appears to be losing the battle. The question is to whom–the BSP or the resurgent Akhilesh- ‘led’ SP.
In this personality-oriented tussle Narendra Modi seems to be losing, though like in Bihar last year, he continues to attract crowd.
Once Akhilesh is back in the race, there is a possibility that a big chunk of Muslim and other backward castes votes, who were looking towards the BSP, may shift back to the SP.