By Siddhant Mohan, TwoCircles.net
It was the start of the spring in 2017 when the roads and streets of Uttar Pradesh were filled with the posters, trucks, digital displays of either Bharatiya Janata Party or “the alliance which UP loves” (UP ko ye saath pasand hai) of the Samajwadi Party. Bahujan Samaj Party was not visible in this setup, rather it was busy in making its way to the rural population as well as the localities where almost no one goes to beg vote.
But when the results of UP elections came on March 11, the BSP was yet again facing the price of its “stubbornness” by not adopting any new methods of campaigning or for neglecting the power of an ‘understanding’ with small groups or an alliance. BSP suffered a loss of 61 seats in these polls and could manage to win only 19 seats out of 403 seats contested in the same election. However, it managed to maintain its vote percentage at 22.24 despite a dismal performance.
The same year, it contested the Punjab assembly elections with full preparation and campaign but the results were even more shameful for the party. In these elections, BSP couldn’t win any seat out of 117 seats contested. The voting percentage in Punjab could not bring any relief to the party where it only got 1.5% of the total votes.
The crisis of Bahujan Samaj Party started emerging in 2014 when the results of India’s general election came out. Despite having the third largest vote share of 4.3%, the party could not manage to win a single seat and also became a subject of mockery as Mayawati, the national president of BSP, announced their intention not to support Bharatiya Janata Party — as it did earlier — to form a government.
All the defeats and performance issues of Bahujan Samaj Party raise an important question: will the BSP be able to secure its national party status despite such dismal performance in the state as well as general elections? The recent steps taken by the party indicate that party is moving to all sects to keep hands on its national party status.
Just before the by-poll in Phulpur and Gorakhpur constituencies this year, BSP announced a coalition with Samajwadi Party and decided not to field any contestant in these two seats. The results were astonishing for the newly formed SP-BSP alliance. Samajwadi Party bagged both of the seats with huge margins, and thanks to almost one-sided voting for NISHAD Party in Gorakhpur, the alliance was also able to break the winning spree of the Saffron banner in the district.
With the new equation, BSP has seemingly opened itself to all the possibilities of an alliance with regional parties in many states. The strategy behind choosing these states lies with the fact that these states are going to assembly elections in a year or two. Moreover, the assembly election in these states are a few months apart from the next Loksabha election, so the party is trying to create a common wave in these states so that it can affect two elections with one alliance.
Abhay Chautala, the leader from Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) announced on April 19 that people of Haryana have faith in Mayawati. “Both the parties are determined to champion the cause of Dalits, farmers and the labor class,” said Chautala, while adding that the coalition was important to ensure that BJP could be restrained from power. Chautala’s announcement comes with a reality that Haryana has 21% population of Dalits, and to consolidate the same INLD might need BSP.
It is important to point out here that the BSP also needs the INLD equally, which has led to such equations. Also, such equations are not just confined to Haryana or north India. The BSP is also fighting an election in Karnataka – a state where the party has a negligible presence – over 18 seats, and this arrangement also pertains to the fact the more than 18% population in Karnataka belongs to the Dalit community. Also, seven of the seats BSP contesting have a majority of Dalit voters, which may or may not change the fate of BSP.
BSP was served a show-cause notice by Election Commission of India recently for its poor performance in 2014 general elections. ECI had asked BSP that why its national party status should not be withdrawn? Party leaders claim that the current measures are for securing the national party status so that the party does not sink even before fighting next general election.
A senior BSP leader from Allahabad talked with TwoCircles.net on the condition of anonymity. The leader said, “When ECI first served us the notice” — in the year 2015 — “we did not actually realize that party was in the crisis. But soon election in Uttar Pradesh came 2017 and party, yet again, performed very poorly. Now we have been trying to do every arrangement so that the ECI should not scrap our national party status.”
The leader further said, “The party is losing its core base voters of UP, and those voters are ultimately shifting towards BJP, whose winning spree is damaging the BSP most. We have to survive with our voters as well as we have to secure our national party status also. And to do that in one step, we are going in full coalition mode.”
A report released by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies in 2014 claimed that there was a decline in Jatav votes of BSP by 16%, while the non-Jatav votes of BSP declined by whopping 35% in the general elections that year.
However, Badri Narayan, the professor at Govind Ballabh Pant Social Science Institute at Allahabad believes that the votes of Jatav community never went away from the BSP. “It was the non-Jatav vote, which was fragmented into many, which has been the troubled block for the Mayawati’s party. That vote deviates easily,” added Narayan.
BSP might have taken a note of this decline because it tried to go for a post-poll alliance with Samajwadi Party during 2017 UP elections. The alliance did not materialize because of BJP’s landslide victory leaving no chance of coalition government. Mayawati stuck to her promise of an “anti-Modi” coalition by providing all the necessary support to Samajwadi Party in Phulpur and Gorakhpur by-polls this year.
Coming over to the other states of, Mayawati’s strategy also seems to be working in Madhya Pradesh, a state which is a stronghold of BJP. According to a projection released by a news channel, BSP may bag 12 seats in the MP assembly election, which is three times higher than the last time when BSP won four seats in 2013 assembly elections.
Seeing BSP’s game up in MP, Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia announced party’s “comfortability” in making a pre-poll alliance with BSP. Congress’ decision to pursue a pre-poll alliance with BSP lies with the fact that Congress won by-polls in Mungaoli and Kolaras seats of MP this year by a very narrow margin to BSP. In the past too, BSP has given a tough fight to both BJP and Congress in many seats in Madhya Pradesh. So by making an alliance, Congress is apparently eyeing on votes which are distributed between BSP and Congress.
However, Mayawati is also infamous for pulling out of any alliance which her party has made and that may put anyone in the dilemma if she is going to do again. But Prof. Narayan believes this won’t happen this time. “Mayawati has tasted the alliance victory in by-polls and securing its national party status is the need of the hour. Party is going to enjoy its alliances in every state it is making,” added Prof. Narayan.
Kanshiram, the founder-mentor of Bahujan Samaj Party, believed strongly in the grassroots work and picking candidates where a win was clear. “But Mayawati knows the political equation way too well in this era. She understands the power of these coalitions, and, I believe, that she is going to stick with this model for a while,” said Prof. Narayan.
Irrespective of the possibility and extent of the success, the nationwide coalition model of BSP has certainly put the ground workers — mostly those working with socialist groups — out on the front again. Ramesh Pasi, a 42-year-old Bhim Police member, told TwoCircles.net, “When there were civic polls last year, we were doing little work and that too half-heartedly. But I was called from Varanasi to Allahabad to work with some teams in Phulpur by-polls in March.”
Like Pasi, a balloon seller who owns a neat uniform of Bhim Police — organization’s own police outfit — which he wears at every political meetings and rallies when BSP is contesting, there are many dedicated workers of BSP who believe that now they do not have the boundary to work under. Sushil Kumar, 39-year-old booth in-charge of BSP, said, “With the new coalition, we have so much freedom to connect and work. We are not confined. Party members are getting jobs now. SP ke saath jaane se ye sabse bada faayda hua hai.”
Mahesh Prasad Ahirwar, a professor of social sciences at Banaras Hindu University, said, “For people in general, BSP is more like a political set up. But for the party workers and the people who are inclined towards it, BSP is more of a social movement which is still running at full pace. It is correct that the party faced defeat in the elections and non-Jatav votes swung away a bit, but the ground is still hot for BSP and it is making a good use of it.”
“And when BSP — party which is famous of groundwork and person-to-person campaigns — makes coalition outside Uttar Pradesh, a state which has seen the party in power, more and more people pour in to join the campaign on the ground. This, in turn, affects the old workers also,” added Ahirwar.
Abhay Kumar Dubey, a political analyst and a fellow at CSDS, also believes that the increased attention over workers is the first thing which is making BSP’s new arrangements work efficiently. “It was not just the political pressure which led BSP to make the alliance with other parties. It was the pressure from the core voters of both the beneficiaries of the alliance, like of Jatavs and Yadavas from BSP and SP, which led BSP and SP or BSP and INLD to come together, otherwise their workers as well voters would start shifting to the BJP,” Dubey told TwoCircles.net.
Tabassum Hassan, a candidate from Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), is apparently set to contest from Kairana Loksabha seat, which went vacant after the death of its MP Hukum Singh a few months back. SP, BSP and other small parties have yet agreed to put their support to RLD candidate in order to avoid division of votes. “Kairana is an example that BSP is being a part of larger understanding. Its stand is going to affect millions of votes, and there are increased chances of astonishing results,” added Dubey.
One BSP leader from Kairana told TwoCircles.net,”Mayawati Ji never believed in going with alliances. Alliances were like a herd of jackals for madam ji. She always wanted to be with the winner, never with one who struggles. It is so uncommon for the party, but we need to go ahead and maybe that is why we are too much into this mode.