By Muhammed Noushad
When the Lok Sabha results come on May 16, who will have the last laugh in Kerala’s Muslim politics? Highly unpredictable. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has been desperately trying to make inroads into Muslim politics for many years, by using different tactics from organising a hugely impressive State Conference at Malappuram (the district where almost 80% of the population are Muslims) and systematically adopting religious Muslims into the party inner circles and playing apparently pro-Muslim games.
On the other side, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has been more or less going the traditional way, often being loudly criticized by the community newspapers and intellectuals for their ineffectual attempts to absorb younger generation into the folds of IUML. Moreover, their lack of vigor in taking political stands in critical situations has also gone against the party. Besides, power and comforts seemed to have effectively defeated the historical IUML from within, making its leaders forget its thrillingly glorious past of serving the community at times of crisis and need. However, since the almost total loss of IUML in last State assembly elections, the party, especially its youth wing has been trying to strengthen the party from within and outside. Caught between the Left’s efforts to conquer Muslim votes and self-weariness in serving the community, IUML faced perhaps its toughest battle in this Lok Sabha polls.
Sheikh Aboobacker with Kerala Chief Minister VS Achudanandan [Photo by ishaq vt]
In Kerala Muslim votes are neatly segregated between IUML and Congress (longtime political patron of IUML) and now the liberal CPI-M. Other parties with small scale influence are People’s Democratic Party and Indian National League, respectively formed by Abdul Nasir Maudany and late Ibrahim Sulaiman Sait. In a mutually divided and strength competing mood, the parties leave no choice open for others to lose a voter. And hence, it is simply not easy to get independent opinion of Muslim voters apart from the reflections of what the major Muslim organizations have already decided and their leaders spoke on TV screens. Thanks to historical reasons, beginning from a partition-unaffected political empowerment, strong presence of Muslim League and influential affluence of Gulf money, Kerala Muslims are perhaps the most politically organized (at least in the sense of security and dignity) in India. They are well-educated and economically settled as well. Kerala Muslims perhaps have the maximum number of organizations in such a small area. This Lok Sabha poll is very critical for defining the future destinies of the Muslim politics in the southernmost state.
Among the total 20 constituencies, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) contested at two places – Ponnani and Malappuram, both their traditional prestigious winning seats since the constituencies created – though in the LS polls 2004, IUML was defeated in Malappuram (Manjery, before delimitation) for the first time in history. IUML’s State Secretary Mr. E.T. Muhammed Basheer contested at Ponnani this time and says he is confident to win. The League workers and analysts believe that Mr. Bahseer, the former Stste Educational Mnister, is the strongest available candidate for Ponnani to contest against the Left’s independent candidate Dr. Hussain Randathani, a college principal turned politician. Dr. Hussain, however, represents the orthodox Sunni section and can gather considerable number of votes in the constituency. But the dissident Leftist candidate Dr. Azad will be a threat to Dr. Hussain’s hope, as the former is bound to sweep a few thousand votes against the mainstream left.
CPI-M’s attempts in affirming roots in Malappuram district is perceived to be part of its long-term agenda to repeat the experiment and experience of West Bengal where it has been continuously staying in power for two and half decades. CPI-M can effectively devastate the political power of the Congress party, which is the main opponent of the Left in national and regional polls, only if the Muslim votes are lured alongside the Communist party; next destination would be to persuade Christian constituencies to the liberal Left havens in the southern districts, where the Church plays a decisive role in electoral fray.
For these reasons, the winning at Ponnani is necessary for IUML at any cost. The main challenge posed to IUML was from People’s Democratic Party, led by Abdul Nasir Maudany who had been recently acquitted after being unjustly detained for nine long years in Coimbatore jail. The PDP cadre has passionately worked against IUML alongside CPI-M; it caused a hot debate in the state whether the secular Left should join hands with “former religious extremists” like Maudany, who is a traditional Muslim scholar and had been noted for his firebrand anti-RSS speeches during his pre-detention days. However, Maudany’s emotional speeches still have considerable influence in which Left roots its hope.
Jamat-e-Islami Hind (Kerala) declared its support to the Left in 18 constituencies, except for Ponnani and Wayanad. They explained that their policy is primarily based on the idea to keep NDA away from power. Also, they wanted to strengthen the Left voice in the Parliament against the pro-imperialist stances taken by the Congress party in recent moves and to send prominent Muslim candidates to Parliament. Though JIH is not at all strong in terms of membership, their stand is very influential in Kerala as they can channelize many Muslim votes, thanks to Madhyamam daily and several social activities. However, JIH publicly campaigned against Mr. Shashi Tharur and Mr. KV Thomas, two prominent Congress candidates, respectively at Trivandrum and Eranakulam, because of the known stands taken by both in support of Israel.
Popular Front of India (formerly called NDF) offered their support to Congress, as they have been doing since inception. However, it is for the first time, PFI declares electoral policy publicly. PFI also took the same stand along with JIH in opposing Mr. Tharur and Mr. Thomas and campaigned against them, despite their support for Congress elsewhere.
And another major Muslim section in Kerala is the Salafi wing, split into two fighting factions a few years ago. Both do not usually publicize their stands but more or less they support Congress, as goes the tradition. Another important section is of orthodox Sunnis, led by AP Abubakkar Musliyar, who is a subtle political player as he never openly supports any party though his obvious emotions are against IUML and hence he finally laughs with the Left. However, once the result comes, everyone expects he would claim that it was out of his vote the candidates (whoever) won, as he did in the last polls! In Malappuram constituency where IUML national leader and Union State Minister for External Affairs, Mr. E Ahmed contests against the sitting MP, Mr. T.K. Hamza, the Musaliyar’s followers have a take in deciding the result as his voters are in thousands. Mr. Hamza has openly said that he is a follower of Musaliyar, clearly targeting his vote bank.