By Liz Mathew, IANS
New Delhi : The Congress and the Left may have patched up their differences over the India-US nuclear deal for now, but neither side seems to be particularly happy to continue with the relationship. Sources in both camps aver that a general election could be unavoidable by next year.
The announcement of a United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-Left committee to look into the concerns raised by the communists over the civil nuclear deal is seen by many as a face saving mechanism for both the ruling party and its Left allies, allowing them to claim victory in their three-week standoff.
Yet, it has also allowed both sides to buy time to prepare for an eventual separation that will inevitably trigger a fresh election to parliament that is otherwise due only in 2009.
Leaders of both sides admit that the once cosy relations between the Congress and the communists have soured so badly over the nuclear bickering that it will be near impossible to take them back to the stage where they embraced each other after the 2004 defeat of their common foe: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
While some Left leaders claim that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s challenge daring them to withdraw support if they did not like the nuclear agreement had “provoked” them, Congress veterans argue that the communist leaders’ repeated warnings of “serious consequences” if the government went ahead with the deal had worsened the situation.
But, for the present, both sides seem united on one issue – their unwillingness to go for an immediate election.
“It is a fact that both sides – in fact no party in the Lok Sabha – are not ready for elections now. This is the main reason that forced the Congress and us to find a formula (over the nuclear deal),” a Left leader told IANS.
Congress leaders vigorously argue that the announcement of the joint committee of Congress and leftist representatives to study the nuclear agreement’s impact on India’s strategic concerns before the deal gets “operationalised” did not amount to putting it in cold storage for too long.
“We have bought time to settle things (for now). But we will sign the nuclear pact with Washington in any case,” insisted a Congress leader from the Rajya Sabha.
“The committee mechanism suits both sides. While the Left can claim that the government has bowed to it, the Congress will get some more time to prepare for early elections,” he added, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
According to the leader, who seemed to represent the dominant thinking in the Congress, the Congress-led UPA government would go ahead with the nuclear agreement only when it is ready for fresh elections.
Despite their bonhomie in New Delhi, the Congress and the Left remain bitter rivals in Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura – the three communist bastions.
In any case, they have had a love-hate relationship during the past three years. Congress leaders complain that the communists make too many demands while not sharing the burden of governance while the Left argues that the Congress seems to forget that it is a party of 145 MPs in the 545-member Lok Sabha and must be listening to all its allies in major policy formulations.
More important, the fight over the nuclear deal is only one aspect of a larger quarrel over how close India should get to the US. On this issue, the two sides have no meeting ground.
In the process, an early general election is an eventuality that every party, including the opposition, is expecting now. “This government will function only till the next budget session,” insisted a Shiv Sena leader.
All the major parties – Congress, BJP and the Left – have already initiated poll preparations although no one is talking about them publicly.
“The Congress needs time to campaign about the positives of this government like the path-breaking National Rural Employment Guarantee Act that ensures 100 days of job to every rural family,” one Congress leader told IANS, adding the leadership had directed the state units to gear up for a premature ballot.
Many political leaders IANS spoke to were of the opinion that elections could take place before the end of next year.
“The general election may happen along with assembly elections due next year in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi,” said a Congress MP from Madhya Pradesh.
According to a senior Congress leader, election-related developments would hinge on the outcome of the Gujarat electoral battle.
“If the Gujarat results are good for us, we will be ready for parliamentary polls even earlier,” the leader said. However, if Gujarat proves unlucky for the Congress, then the election plans may go awry.