By Wei Jianhua, Xinhua
Beijing : Continued violence in Iraq in 2008 reminds the world that stability remains elusive in the war-shattered country despite the fact that some progress has been scored during the strengthened U.S. offensive against insurgents.
Four years after the U.S.-led invasion, as many as 160,000 U.S. troops remain in the small country to ensure security and train government forces.
Dozens of civilians have been killed in Iraq in bomb attacks so far this year. A suicide bombing killed at least 30 in Baghdad on the New Year’s Day.
Sticking point lingers
Since the U.S. reinforced its counter-insurgency operations in the second half of 2007, al-Qaida refrained from carrying out attacks and was gradually pushed out of Baghdad and denied a safe haven in the surrounding towns.
Analysts, however, pointed out that it is far from the end of al-Qaida activities, which are widely predicted to linger on for along period.
Al-Qaida fighters have now moved northwards into the northern provinces, including in the Diyala River valley, north of Baghdad. Meanwhile, others remain active in areas south of the capital.
The U.S. top commander Gen. David Petraeus confirmed the long presence of al-Qaida in his year-end brief and named the group as the greatest threat faced by Iraq.
Another threat comes from the factional militias that are independent from Iraq’s security forces, such as the Awakening Councils of the Sunnis and the Mahdi Army led by Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr.
The U.S. forces and the Iraqi government had planned to rearm the 80,000-strong Sunni militiamen this year as part of efforts to fight al-Qaida.
But Washington was warned by experts that the move is extremely risky as many of the Sunni militiamen are anti-American.
Meanwhile, numerous analysts warned that the Mahdi Army is still a potential time bomb despite a ceasefire announced by Sadr last August.
Fragile political reconciliation
The process of political reconciliation between Iraqi factions made tedious progress last year due to sectarian divides and lack of trust, posing uncertainties to the improvement of the country’s security.
The rifts are preventing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki from consolidating his cabinet, which currently has around 25 ministers out of an original 40. Maliki’s Shiite coalition can only count on the support of 136 lawmakers in the 275-seat parliament.
The National Concord Front, the main Sunni Arab bloc in parliament, pulled its six ministers out of government in August, accusing Maliki of failing to rein in Shiite militias and of the arbitrary arrest and detention of Sunnis.
A Pentagon report agreed that Iraq’s national reconciliation “continues to be hindered by slow progress and competing interests.”
The parliamentary parties are also immersed in a deadlock over a couple of sticky issues including an amendment of the constitution, the draft of a law regulating the oil and gas industry and the status of Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq.
Besides, the growing influence of Iraq’s neighboring countries is also difficult to ignore. Turkey’s border incursions to strike at Kurdish Workers Party forces in the north and the evolving relationship between Iraq’s neighbors and the U.S. are all factors complicating the country’s security situation.