By Mohammed Faisal, TwoCircles.net
The first by-poll was in 1978. At that time, Indira Gandhi was ousted due to the imposition of emergency. India’s political scene was such that everyone has written off Indira Gandhi. Janata Party was in power and an anti-Congress wave was at its zenith. Nobody could imagine that Congress will return to power.
Then, one by-poll was held in Azamgarh parliamentary seat. The seat was vacated by Ram Naresh Yadav as he had become chief minister of Uttar Pradesh. He is same Ram Naresh who was later appointed as Governor of MP by UPA.
Congress took this by-poll as a barometer. Indira Gandhi camped there and Congress fielded Mohsina Kidwai as its candidate. Congress won the by-polls and the euphoria of Janata Party fizzled away. In next general election, Congress regained power with the Azamgarh by-poll setting the trend.
The second by-poll was in 1988. This time, the by-poll was held in Allahabad. Amitabh Bachchan had resigned as Congress MP. V P Singh who had dissociated from Congress and floated his Janmorcha contested as an independent. Slogans like ‘Raja Nahi Fakeer hain, Desh Ki takdeer hain’ was raised. At that time, Congress was enjoying an absolute majority in wake of Indira’s assassination. V P Singh defeated Congress candidate Sunil Shastri, the son of Lal Bahadur Shastri. At that time, the whole opposition had united against Congress and the then Chief Minister of Haryana Devilal led the tirade.
In the coming year, VP Singh became PM heading National Front government and since then, Congress has failed to form a majority government on its own in centre.
Now the situation is same in UP.
Two seats are falling vacant in LS for which by-poll will be held. One is Gorakhpur of CM Yogi Adityanath and another one is Phoolpur where currently Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya is MP.
The opposition has thrown weight for winning at least one by-poll. After this, the next election will be held in 2019 along with the rest of the country. This result will set the tone for various political issues—unity among the opposition, forming an alliance, BJP Vs others, who will be the candidate of opposition for by-poll etc.
The stakes are very high. History has examples.
From initial reports, it is clear that the opposition senses a better chance for the Phoolpur seat instead of Gorakhpur. BSP president Mayawati, who has resigned from Rajya Sabha is reported to be the united opposition candidate from Phoolpur. Even Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav said on Wednesday—if we three unite, what will be your fate? Have you imagined?
Any adverse result will send the wrong signal for BJP and even worse for its CM Yogi Adityanath. After this there will be the general election in 2019 and opposition may bank upon this by-poll to set the ball rolling. Needless to say, the by-polls will be a good test for both the BJP and its opposition parties.