1st Phase Poll: 47 seats, 37 Muslim candidates by major alliances

By Mumtaz Alam Falahi, TwoCircles.net,

Patna: As many as 47 seats will go to poll in the October 21 1st Phase poll of Bihar Assembly elections. Three major alliances/parties have fielded 37 Muslim candidates, covering only 22 out of 47 seats. How many of these 22 seats will be won by these candidates? Let’s have a preview.

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Of 47, while Muslim vote can be decisive in 26 seats where they constitute 20-75% of population, the three leading alliances/parties namely Congress, RJD+LJP and JD(U)+BJP have fielded Muslim candidates in only 22 constituencies in this phase.

Of 47 seats there are 18 seats where Muslim population is 30% or above, and if the population of Dalit and Adivasi is added they can touch 50% mark. In the 8 of these 22 constituencies, Muslims account for 50 or above percentage of the local population. They are: Araria (58.97), Jokihat (69.47), Bahadurganj (62.68), Kishanganj (65.04), Kochadhaman (74.22), Amour (74.3), Baisi (69.06) and Balrampur (65.13).

Among the 37 Muslim candidates for the 22 seats, 17 are from Congress – the party is contesting all 47 seats of the phase alone. The RJD-LJP alliance which is also contesting all seats has fielded 15 Muslims followed by JD(U)-BJP alliance which has given tickets to only 5 Muslims (4 from JD(U) and 1 from BJP).

It is interesting to note here that none of the three alliances/parties, not even Congress, have fielded Muslim candidates in Purnia and Katihar where Muslims account for 28.63% and 27.65% population respectively. If the population of Dalits and Adivasi is added then they will account for 46.02 and 42.84% population in the two seats respectively. The two seats are currently held by BJP.

In the outgoing Assembly, there are 9 Muslim MLAs (out of total of 15) from the areas to be covered in the 1st Phase poll. The Congress has 4 Muslim MLAs while RJD-LJP, JD(U)-BJP, NCP and CPI ML have one each. There is one Independent Muslim MLA also. Almost all these MLAs have been retained by their parties.

The most important aspect of the analysis: Will the number of Muslim MLAs increase from the 1st Phase area? It is difficult to say as the Congress is clashing either with RJD-LJP or JD(U)-BJP in 12 of 22 seats. In the case of fractured voting, benefit is most likely to go to JD(U)-BJP as they have only 5 Muslim candidates in the fray.

So the hope lies on the 10 seats which have only one Muslim candidate from any of the three alliances. On 4 seats there are RJD-LJP candidates while on 6 others Congress has its candidates.

Muslim candidates of major alliances/parties in 1st Phase