By A. Mirsab, TwoCircles.net,
Historical 16th Indian Lok Sabha elections have come to an end with last phase of voting in 41 constituencies including Varanasi from where BJP prime ministerial candidate is contesting. No sooner voting ended Indian news channels started their game of numbers and almost all of them except TIMES NOW predicted that NDA will cross over 272+ and will form government at the centre. Actual counting of votes will be done on Friday 16th May.
BJP has welcomed the exit polls carried out by different TV news channels except that of TIMES NOW and Congress as usual is criticizing the surveys and has boycotted the discussion on TV channels depending upon these exit polls. BJP has started their internal assessment for the distribution of portfolios and ministries among its leader where as Congress is relying upon the fact that exit polls were proved wrong in 2004 and 2009 when it predicted defeat of Congress but actually won and formed the government at centre.
These are the figures of different exit polls:
Exit polls seem to have predicted well as far as AAP is concerned to which they have allotted 5+ seats. None of the channel has forecasted single seat for AAP in New Delhi. This number can be proved to be right due to anger between AAP supporters for abruptly leaving the power after 49 days in New Delhi and disproportionate distribution of tickets.
When the projection of Congress seats seems to be acceptable considering the fact that there was indeed anti-Congress wave in the country but there is a quite possibility that the numbers for BJP will wary with 50-60 seats in negative and would require 35 odd more seats to achieve magic figure.
This is because the constituencies where there was a chance of Congress’ win due to anti-BJP mentality, some percentage of its votes are eaten up by AAP which has in a way helped BJP to win as most of BJP voters are not divided. Hence the numbers predicted by exit polls for Congress except that of NEWS24 / CHANAKYA makes sense by which the maximum they can win is 148 seats and minimum is 97.
But there is a problem with the numbers allotted to BJP and others’ where it seems the exit polls survey has not done justice with the regional parties. Almost all the exit polls have predicted close to 50 seats for BJP in UP and nearly 10-10 seats for BSP and SP. Here polls have exaggerated Modi wave in UP and have undermined SP and especially BSP strength. Looking at the ticket allocation of BSP ( 19 out of 80 seats for Muslims) and regular press conferences held by Mayavati through which BSP tried hard to keep hold of Muslims votes in BSP it is most likely that BSP will earn at least 15 seats which is 7+ more compared with the exit polls.
While deriving numbers one cannot forget that SP is in power and Mulayam Singh Yadav is contesting from two seats although Muslims are upset with it due to loose handling of Muzaffar Nagar riots but it can earn at least 12 seats in their own state due to Mulayam influence.
Even the voting percentage of UP was restricted to 56% which is very less compared with other states and hence it cannot be said that people turned out in big numbers due to Modi’s urging or Amit Shah’s good performance as its Pradesh prabhari.
Also, exit polls have predicted close to 30 seats out of 40 in Bihar. This number is also exaggerated because Bihar has more than 30% Muslim voters and according to their own reports before actual voting in Bihar Muslims were to vote for RJD than JD (U) and Yadav were also expected to vote for Lalu then this 30 number given to BJP is also not justified as Lalu’s RJD is expected to show good performance in Bihar this time and may clinch 10+ seats.
Assam is another state where exit polls have calculated 7+ seats out of 14 to BJP. This number is overstated too because in 1999 when BJP performed very well and formed government at centre they had won only 2 seats in Assam and hence considering the fact that it has good number of Muslims, presence of UDF and Congress as state government it is unlikely that BJP will win 7+ seats here.
Another state where exit polls may prove wrong is Maharashtra where BJP and Shiv Sena have been predicted to win 30+ seats out of 48. It is because MNS party lead by Raj Thakare is most likely to eat up Shiv Sena votes which will ultimately help INC-NCP alliance due to little presence of AAP. Also NCP voters in Maharashtra are known to vote only for their leader and hence little chances of INC-NCP voters to vote for Shiv Sena by merely looking at Modi’s picture in Shiv Sena’s hoardings.
Conclusion
1. INC alliance will not be able to go ahead with the exit polls prediction (148 max as per TIMES NOW/ORG)
2. BJP alliance number amplified in certain states and therefore possibly would be restricted 35 odd seats before magic number.
3. Muslim voters’ factor was neglected by Exit polls.
4. Unjust with the regional parties BSP,SP,UDF,NCP etc.
Come May 16 and we will know who is correct and whose predictions were spot on.