By IANS
Ahmedabad : Faced with a twin revolt by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) legislators in Gujarat, it is now certain that the assembly elections in November will be a tough challenge for the state’s ruling party.
This apart, two external challenges have also hit the BJP. The first is the Mayawati factor. The Uttar Pradesh chief minister has announced that her Bhaujan Samaj Party (BSP) would on its own contest all the 182 assembly seats in Gujarat.
Then, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad that strongly backed the BJP in the 2002 election has now stated that it will keep its distance from the party alleging that the BJP’s commitment to pursuing the Hindutva agenda was waning.
It might yet be a far cry for the BSP to repeat in Gujarat its Uttar Pradesh performance, where it was swept to power on its own. A perusal of the result table of the 2002 Gujarat poll, however, shows the BSP could upset the BJP in some constituencies.
In 2002, the BJP won 127 seats. But in 26 seats, the party only managed to win by margins ranging from 557 to 4,998 votes. The constituencies are Halvad, Dharangadhara, Morvi, Jodiya, Jamnagar, Kalwad, Jamjodhpur, Khambalia, Talala, Babra, Dhari, Kodinar, Palitana, Dholka, Mandal, Viramgam, Shapur, Shaher Kotda, Mansa, Patan, Dhanera, Kapadvanj, Sarsa, Kamrej, Olpad and Jalalpur.
What is significant is that for 14 of these seats, the BSP and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) either individually or jointly could have helped the Congress emerge victorious had they managed to poll votes equal to the BJP’s victory margin.
Thus, these 26 seats could be termed as vulnerable for the ensuing poll as far as the BJP is concerned.
If the opposition to the leadership of Chief Minister Narendra Modi by legislators aligned with BJP veteran Keshubhai Patel – and those supporting the Koli community – continues, this could impact on the result in about 30 constituencies.
Besides, the suspension by the BJP national leadership of legislators who cross-voted during last month’s presidential poll have also dimmed the chances of the party presenting a united face during the electoral battle, analysts here say.
Former chief minister Patel’s assertion to Arun Jaitley, the BJP observer for Gujarat, during his recent visit to Ahmedabad that he could do precious little to stem the tide of revolt in the party was a clear message that the dissidents had his full support.
All these elements have put 56 seats in the grey area. If the BJP loses some of these and still retains power, it will mean the party will no longer be in the comfort zone.