By Baldev S. Chauhan, IANS
Shimla : If Himachal Pradesh’s electoral logic is valid, the ruling Congress has plenty of reasons to worry.
Political workers and analysts say that Himachal’s most literate voters have always voted against the party that controls the government, invariably bringing the opposition party to power.
If that happens again, the main beneficiary in the hill state of 6.3 million can only be the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
In 1990, the BJP stormed to power in the 68-seat assembly. Then in the mid-term poll following the razing of the Babri mosque in Ayodhya, the Congress sprang back to power in 1993.
But in 1998 the BJP was voted back to office. Five years later, in 2003, the Congress returned to power. It remains to be seen if this trend will continue after the second and final round of polling Dec 19.
Political analysts attribute the vote swing to high literacy.
“When expectations are not met by the party in power, voters are quick to vote out parties in power, hoping the new incumbent will fulfil their demands,” said an analyst.
Himachal’s political landscape is neatly divided between the BJP and the Congress.
But leaders and workers of both the parties appear to ignore this historical factsheet.
Congress leaders assert things will be different this time. BJP leaders insist that anti-incumbency will be the deciding factor.
“We will not only retain power but form the government with a comfortable majority,” says Congress Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh.
Prem Kumar Dumal, who in all probability will be chief minister if the BJP forms a government, disagrees: “The Congress will get a drubbing.”
Both parties are downplaying the entry into the electoral politics of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
The BSP is contesting all 68 seats and has even declared a chief ministerial candidate, Vijay Singh Mankotia, a two time state tourism minister who was recently expelled from the Congress.
The BSP, already feeling proud of its performance in Uttar Pradesh, says it is going to break new ground.
“The election results will surprise all, the BSP will win half of the seats,” says Mankotia.
Political observers are not dismissing the BSP, saying in the event of a hung assembly, the party could prove to be a kingmaker.
People still remember the crucial support given to the BJP by one single legislator Ramesh Dhawala when both the parties tied in 1998. Dhawala, formerly from the Congress, won as an independent. He chose to support the BJP.
In the 2003 poll, the Congress secured 43 seats and the BJP 16. Nine seats went to others.
Sixty-five constituencies will vote Dec 19. In view of the threat of early snowfall the first phase of polling covering three tribal seats of Bharmaur, Lahaul & Spiti and Kinnaur took place Nov 14. The vote count will take place Dec 28.
According to Chief Electoral Officer Manisha Nanda, there are 4,477,254 voters for 65 seats. There will be 5,934 polling stations and 324 candidates are in the fray.
While the BJP, the Congress and the BSP have fielded candidates for all seats, the Lok Janshakti is contesting 38 seats and the Communist Party of India-Marxist seven while there are also 38 independents and others.