Congress sinks, BJP grows, but Lok Sabha majority still elusive

By Liz Mathew, IANS

New Delhi : The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is riding high after two spectacular electoral victories in state elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. But its hopes of winning a parliamentary majority in the 545-member Lok Sabha may still remain out of reach.


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As for the Congress, it has too many bad news to reckon with.

The Gujarat results – where the party won just 59 of the 182 seats in a virtual straight contest with the BJP – have confirmed the worst fears: the grand old party of India is losing its magic touch.

Not only are the poor and minorities – its traditional vote bank – moving away from the Congress, it has not been able to win the popular imagination of the urban population that often influences government policies and agendas.

Even as Congress sympathisers are beginning to see the debacle in Gujarat as a possible long-term loss, there are already other states that are becoming out of its reach.

Currently it is in power, either alone or in alliance, in eight states – Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh among the big ones besides Delhi, Haryana, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Arunachal Pradaesh and Jammu and Kashmir.

It is in a bad shape in politically crucial Uttar Pradesh in the north, Bihar, Orissa and West Bengal in the east and Tamil Nadu in the south.

While it plays second fiddle to linguistic nationalist parties in Tamil Nadu, caste based parties are now dominant in Uttar Pradesh, once a Congress bastion.

The Congress has no hopes of winning a respectable number of Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu (total 39 seats), West Bengal (42), Orissa (21), Bihar (40) and Uttar Pradesh (80). These account for 222 of the Lok Sabha’s 543 elected seats.

The party also suffers from factionalism and charges of poor governance in Andhra Pradesh (42), Haryana (10), Jharkhand (14), Maharashtra (48) and Gujarat (26). This adds another 140 seats in the problem area.

The Congress could perform better in Karnataka, but not without an ally, as well as Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab and Chhattisgarh. But these states have only 126 Lok Sabha constituencies.

Political analysts say the Congress is clearly losing support among its traditional support base, the weaker sections and minorities, because of its inability to translate the benefits of its policies to the masses, besides the upper middle class.

But with one and a half years left for the next parliamentary elections, some feel the Congress still has a future.

“It is too early to say the Congress is losing its significance. The Congress-led UPA (United Progressive Alliance) has one more year in power. It is a very important year,” said Sudha Pai, professor in the Centre for Political Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) here.

The Congress may be in gloomy mood, but things are not very bright for the BJP either – despite its boast that it was within striking distance of power in New Delhi once again.

The saffron party has also seen its base rapidly eroding in Uttar Pradesh; it has limited support in southern states; and it needs the Shiv Sena to lean on in Maharashtra. It plays the second fiddle to its allies in Orissa, Bihar and Punjab. It is an also ran in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

And it could pay dearly in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, states it now rules.

Prem Shankar Jha, another political observer, agreed. “Voting is on the basis of what you have done. (Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra) Modi has done a lot for the state. He is otherwise a despicable man but he governed well. If you want to win votes, you should have better programmes,” Jha told IANS.

He emphasized that national politics still revolves around the Congress and the BJP.

“There will be only two tent poles – one is leftist and the other for rightwing policies.” According to him, all other political parties will revolve around these two parties in national politics.

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