Amid war, India’s emerging Sri Lanka tilt

By M.R. Narayan Swamy,

 IANS


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New Delhi :  After witnessing the steady demise of a peace process it quietly helped put in place, India is caught between a belligerent Sri Lankan regime and the Tamil Tigers. Now it seems to be slowly tilting towards Colombo. Despite some vocal bad blood vis-à-vis Colombo, New Delhi appears to be throwing its weight behind Sri Lanka in the war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) even while overtly maintaining equidistance. Some of the visible changes come amid the Sri Lankan government's determination to pursue a political and military approach that is not totally to India's liking but which New Delhi is painfully realizing it can do nothing about. The Indian policy movements also come at a time when the international community is learning the limitations of outside forces forcing a settlement that will help bring genuine peace to Sri Lanka. In recent days, National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan has gone public asking Sri Lanka not to shop for weapons in China or Pakistan – comments that raised many eyebrows – while ruling out sale of "offensive weapons" from India. Simultaneously, he made it clear – in New Delhi and then in Chennai, both after meetings with Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi – that the LTTE was a terrorist group and that its sea and nascent air wings posed a threat to India. Also last week, Sri Lanka's Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapakse, who oversees the war against the LTTE and is a brother of President Mahinda Rajapakse, flew to India from Turkey and met officials of the security and military set-ups, giving his assessment of the situation and outlining Colombo's military needs. Even as his brother was here, President Rajapakse – who has nursed a sense of hurt since late 2005 over the treatment New Delhi gave him during his first foreign trip after taking office – told an interviewer that Sri Lanka was only prepared to listen to India, not the West. His comments came amid speculation that India was covertly assisting Sri Lanka with vital military hardware. Sri Lanka has in recent years followed a strategy aimed at increasing India's economic stakes in the island so that any security threats to Colombo would also be deemed a threat to New Delhi. And while India has gone for limited sale of arms to Sri Lanka besides sharing intelligence and providing naval and air defence cooperation, it has not fulfilled the many other military requirements of Colombo. This has forced Sri Lanka to turn to Pakistan and China among other countries, knowing well that India would be unhappy. This puts pressure on New Delhi – either continue with a "no-offensive-weapons-for-sale" policy or go in for covert assistance. Adding to the haze is the LTTE's uncompromising attitude. The overall assessment remains that the Tigers are not India friendly and only want to use New Delhi to further their interests. At the same time, President Rajapakse has gone back on assurances given to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Havana last year to keep the northeastern province united to satisfy a very basic Tamil demand. A reasonable devolution package for the Tamils is also nowhere in sight. And while Indian officials say their repeated expressions of concerns have reduced civilian deaths caused by Sri Lankan air and artillery attacks, Tamil rights activists say that killings and kidnappings of Tamils of all hues have become rampant. In the present circumstances, India is in no position to broker any deal between Sri Lanka and LTTE. Its influence is limited vis-à-vis both the Colombo regime and the Sinhalese society, which lacks a bipartisan approach to the conflict. And contrary to widespread belief, India also has no tangible influence over the LTTE, which is working, despite many setbacks, towards reversing the military tide one day. Tamil sources say the one major difference between the 1980s and now is that India was then seen a major power that could one day militarily intervene in Sri Lanka to set things right. It did just that, paid a heavy price and withdrew bleeding. Now it has stated repeatedly that there will be no further military intervention in Sri Lanka.

 

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