By Rajeev Khanna
New Delhi, Oct 10 (IANS) India’s next parliamentary election cannot be held before April 2008 because the Election Commission will not be ready until then to conduct the gigantic exercise, according to experts.
Politicians are already getting into election mode as tensions between the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Left over the India-US nuclear deal show no signs of abating, making an early election inevitable.
But the poll panel needs at least four months to get ready for the nationwide exercise involving over 675 million voters to elect the next Lok Sabha. Besides, there are factors like weather and availability of schools that get converted to polling stations, say government officials and former officials of the Election Commission.
“Even if elections were to be announced today they cannot be conducted before April. The commission requires at least four months for making preparations to conduct a parliamentary election,” said former Election Commission advisor K.J. Rao.
Former chief election commissioner (CEC) B.B. Tandon told IANS: “The Commission is always gearing itself to conduct elections. It is in a state of preparedness and is regularly revising the electoral rolls.”
Experts point out that conducting a national election in a country like India, given its size and the numbers involved, requires preparation of exhaustive voters’ lists and a large deployment of security forces. The monetary cost is also huge.
“Holding an election normally costs Rs.300-400 crore (Rs.3-4 billion) for the government machinery,” estimated Rao.
Also to be taken into account are the five state assembly elections due before March 2008 — Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura. In all these states, polls are scheduled this December.
Also, the Election Commission is unlikely to agree to a schedule earlier than April for the parliamentary elections on the grounds that the cold weather in many parts of India will affect voter turnout.
Besides, annual examinations are held in schools all over the country in March and April. School premises play a key role in Indian elections with many of the 800,000-odd polling booths set up in school buildings. The schools also house security forces.
As it was in 2004, this time too balloting may be staggered. Rao says the next election will be held in at least five phases.
Once the Lok Sabha is dissolved through a presidential proclamation, the poll panel has to hold a meeting with representatives of all recognised national and state parties. Then come meetings with chief secretaries, police chiefs and chief electoral officers of all the states over the law and order situation.
According to Rao, the need for paramilitary forces varies from place to place. “You can imagine the strength required for conducting a peaceful election if Uttar Pradesh and Bihar go to the polls on a single day.”
For the deployment of forces, the panel has to conduct several rounds of discussions with representatives from the home ministry.
Besides, electoral rolls in all the states and union territories need to be revised with effect from a qualifying date and have to be published. In 2004, the number of electors was about 675 million. The number will go up this time.
The Commission on Monday directed that electoral rolls be revised from Jan 1, 2008 and be published by the middle of the same month. The panel is now moving towards the use of electronic photo identity cards (EPIC).