By Liz Mathew, IANS
New Delhi : Just a week ago it was not averse to snap polls. Now the Congress is unsure of how it will fare in the wake of the unsavoury row over the Sethusamudram shipping canal project that has ignited religious passions among a section of Hindus.
With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cashing in on the controversy, and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi’s aggressive comments against Lord Ram adding fuel to the fire, the Congress finds itself on the back foot.
The BJP decision to launch a campaign over Ram’s existence being questioned in the government’s controversial affidavit in the Supreme Court appears to have shattered the earlier confidence of the Congress to go for early elections and return to power with more seats in the 545-seat lower house of parliament.
According to party sources, the Congress leadership has been struggling to formulate a strategy if elections become necessary in the event of the Left withdrawing its support to the government over the India-US nuclear deal.
The sources admit that party chief Sonia Gandhi’s hurried intervention leading to the withdrawal of the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) affidavit was not enough.
When the Congress-Left battle erupted over the nuclear deal, the ruling party was confident that business and middle class anger vis-à-vis the communists on the issue would help it gain more seats in any future election.
At that time many Congress leaders had tried to convince Sonia Gandhi that it was the right time to plunge into elections even though she was not sure about the prospects of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
But the swift developments in the past few days over the Sethusamudram project, which Hindu groups are opposing on the ground that it would destroy the so-called bridge Ram Sethu, built during Lord Ram’s time, has left the Congress confused.
And the DMK’s decision to also question Ram’s existence has pushed the Congress into a corner. The DMK is a key Congress ally, and the BJP is taking full advantage of the Congress discomfort.
“We were ready for elections till the other day. But now we need some time to assess the situation,” a minister in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s council of ministers admitted to IANS on condition of anonymity.
Unlike the DMK whose leaders are self-proclaimed atheists, the Congress can neither afford to go against Karunanidhi nor support his views.
But even when the Left took on the Congress over the nuclear issue, the Congress did not want to dissolve the Lok Sabha. It preferred the Left to withdraw its legislative support or pull down the government – to garner sympathy votes.
The BJP-led government in 1999 returned to power with more seats after being forced to go in for elections by its allies. But the same BJP failed to retain power in 2004 when it dissolved the house and went for elections.
“The Congress will seek a trust vote in the Lok Sabha if the Left withdraws support to convey the message that we don’t want a snap poll,” a Congress MP from Andhra Pradesh said, adding that the atmosphere would have been conducive for the party if an election were thrust upon India on the nuclear issue.
The communists want the government to put a pause on the operationalisation of the India-US nuclear deal till the Left concerns are addressed. The Left has warned of “serious consequences” if this is not done.
Now the picture is different – as far as the Congress is concerned.
“The affidavit goof up over Ram Sethu has come as a major setback for us. It is going to affect our prospects badly,” admitted a party general secretary.
While Congress leaders feel that the BJP’s resurgence over the emotive Ram Sethu issue would dilute the communist onslaught on the nuclear deal, the Left feels the latest developments would temper the Congress eagerness for mid-term polls.
Says a Left leader: “The Congress is likely to get a setback in Gujarat as the Ram Sethu issue has strengthened (Chief Minister) Narendra Modi’s chances. If Modi wins again, the Congress may not be as keen for a poll.”
Gujarat is scheduled to go for assembly polls later this year.
Publicly, the Congress has put up a brave face.
“The controversy over Sethusamudram may have consolidated the BJP’s position to some extent because it is a party which uses Ram’s name to construct temples. But the Congress is always ready for polls,” said B.K. Hariprasad, the party general secretary in charge of Gujarat.