By Liz Mathew, IANS
New Delhi : Ten Indian states go to the polls this year in a mammoth political exercise that will be the last popularity test before the country plunges into the 2009 parliamentary elections.
Although the results of the assembly elections are unlikely to affect Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government, they are sure to influence the voters in the battle for the Lok Sabha only 18 months away.
Karnataka, now under President’s rule, will in all probability be the first major state to see elections this year. The Congress, the Janata Dal-Secular and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will vie for power.
The northeastern states of Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura are to vote early this year. The latter half will witness balloting in Jammu and Kashmir, Mizoram, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Some analysts believe that the electoral battles ahead and the rout in December may force the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to unveil populist measures to shore up its support base.
The government is also expected to put the India-US nuclear deal, which its Communist allies bitterly oppose, on the backburner.
The dominant antagonists in most major states will be the Congress and the BJP, which heads the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and whose morale has been greatly boosted by its spectacular win in Gujarat and later in Himachal Pradesh.
But in some states, including Jammu and Kashmir, regional parties will play a key role, even if the BJP and the Congress are also in the race.
“The elections in these states will set the tone for the big (Lok Sabha) battle (of 2009),” political analyst G.V.L. Narasimhar Rao told IANS.
Political activists are seeing the state elections as the last referendum ahead of the parliamentary polls for the Congress and the BJP.
The BJP is desperate to win in Karnataka, or at least finish on top of a possible divided house, to prove that its resurgence was not limited to Gujarat, known as the Hindutva laboratory, and Himachal Pradesh.
Rao felt that the Karnataka battle was “right now poised to be in favour of the BJP. Another defeat would definitely demoralise the Congress. So the Congress is likely to work hard to win. It desperately needs a morale booster”.
Intelligence sources say they are convinced that the 2009 parliamentary election will throw up another hung house and that the main battle then would be to see who finishes on top – and gets invited to cobble a coalition. In 2004, there was only a difference of 10 seats between the final tally of the Congress and that of the BJP, the former getting 145 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha.
With its voter base rapidly shrinking, in complete contrast to its happier days in 2004, the Congress wants to overcome the “anti-incumbency” sentiment among the voters.
Some in the Congress believe that popular support for the party will start going up because 2008 will witness the positive effects of the welfare measures introduced by the Left-backed Congress-led UPA government.
In the three years of its governance, the UPA government has increased the spending on education from Rs 12,000 crore (Rs.120 billion) to Rs.32,000 crore, the health and family welfare allocation from Rs.7,620 crore to Rs.17,560 crore, and the agriculture and rural sector funding from Rs.20,000 crore to Rs.60,000 crore.
Sociologists like Kamal Mitra Chenoy feel that the poor electoral showing and anti-establishment sentiments would force the government to slow down its economic reforms. Even the foreign policy, which the Communists say is tilted towards the US, could be hit.
“The government is likely to come up with a more people-friendly budget (in February) and other popular measures. It is not likely to insist on the nuclear deal, it may keep away contentious issues like Special Economic Zones and may also implement the Sixth Pay Commission immediately, raising the salaries of millions of government employees,” Chenoy told IANS.
While Rao believes that the wins in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh and the mood of optimism vis-a-vis Karnataka have left the BJP upbeat, Chenoy has a different view: “The BJP is in darkness. It cannot anyway expect a Modi (Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who led the party to victory) everywhere.”
After the victory in Gujarat in particular, BJP leaders are buoyant and believe they are on the path of returning to power in New Delhi.
Although upset over the BJP victories, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) and other Left parties insist that the government should put the nuclear deal with Washington in cold storage.
The Left opposes the deal saying it would make India a junior strategic partner to the US. Its insistence that the government should report to it after talking to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has embarrassed the Congress.
Chenoy feels that the year would witness a churning process in the political alliances. There could be a new-look UPA and NDA, minus some existing allies and with new ones coming in.
“The Left is likely to lean towards the Third Front parties like the Samajwadi Party and TDP (Telugu Desam Party),” he said.
Rao also warned of dangers to the Congress from an aggressive Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is making determined bids to spread its wings in other states after taking power in Uttar Pradesh last year.
“The state elections could set the agenda for general elections. Elections in BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan by the end of 2008 should provide a breather to the Congress,” he said. “But the Congress should be careful about the BSP as it could make dents in its support base .”