Iran nuclear impasse likely to persist despite new UN resolution

By Wu Zhiqiang, Xinhua

United Nations : The stalemate surrounding Iran’s nuclear program looks set to persist despite a new resolution adopted by the UN Security Council slapping additional sanctions aimed at pressing Tehran to suspend its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities, analysts say.


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DUAL-TRACK APPROACH

Like the previous two sanctions resolutions on Tehran, the latest one continues to pursue a dual-track approach that incorporates moderate pressure and an incentive package in the hope that Iran would be driven back to the negotiating table and that its nuclear issue could be solved through diplomatic means.

Sanction measures in the new resolution include travel restrictions and bans for more Iranians, an expansion of asset freezes, curbs on dual-use items, export credit, financial monitoring, and cargo inspections on aircraft and vessels. However, observers say the measures remain moderate and are far from capable of crippling Iran.

As has been pointed out by Chinese Ambassador Wang Guangya, the new resolution is not aimed at punishing Iran but urging it to return to the negotiating table, thus reactivating a new round of diplomatic efforts.

“The sanction measures are not targeted at the Iranian people and will not affect the normal economic and financial activities between Iran and other countries,” Wang said.

As a matter of fact, the new resolution has left ample room for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. Resolution 1803 stressed the authority and role of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), commended progress in cooperation between Iran and the IAEA and pledged continued support for collaboration between the two sides.

It also emphasized the readiness of Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States to deal with the Iranian nuclear issue on the basis of a package deal they offered in June 2006.

“All the sanction measures are reversible,” Chinese Ambassador Wang said. “If Iran suspends uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities and complies with the relevant IAEA and Security Council resolutions, the sanctions will be suspended, and even terminated.”

In a display of the six country’s resolve for the pursuit of a diplomatic solution, their foreign ministers issued a joint statement Monday after the resolution’s adoption, encouraging the European Union’s foreign policy chief Javier Solana to meet with Saeed Jalili, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, to “address the interests and concerns of both sides in a manner which can gradually create the conditions for the opening of negotiations.”

FAILURE TO ACHIEVE UNANIMITY

In contrast to the previous two sanctions resolutions on Iran, the latest one failed to clear the 15-member Security Council with unanimity, a goal the sponsors tried hard to achieve so as to highlight the resolve of the international community and the isolation of Tehran.

In late February, Britain, France and Germany drafted a resolution based on elements agreed in Berlin in January by foreign ministers of Germany and the five permanent members of the Security Council, and distributed the draft to members of the council.

South Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam and Libya raised reservations about the draft, arguing that slapping stronger sanctions at a time when Iran makes progress in cooperating with the IAEA would hurt such collaboration. Some of them even hinted they would vote against or abstain.

To alley the four countries’ misgivings, the co-sponsors made some non-substantial revisions to the draft, such as further emphasis on and support for the role of the IAEA in solving the Iranian nuclear issue and reference to the observation of national and international law in cargo inspections of Iranian aircraft and vessels.

To garner maximum support, Britain and France postponed the vote twice to allow for more diplomatic consultations.

South Africa, Vietnam and Libya eventually voted in favor of the resolution, but Indonesia held its ground and abstained, dashing Western countries’ hope of a unanimous outcome.

CURTAINS UP FOR NEW ROUND OF WRANGLING

Under the new resolution, IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei would file a report to the UN Security Council within 90days on whether Iran has established full and sustained suspension of all uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities.

If Tehran is found to have complied with UN requirements, the Security Council would lift the sanctions. Otherwise, Iran would face “further appropriate measures under Article 41 of Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations,” which means more resolutions prescribing even harsher sanctions.

Statements made by Iranian leaders in recent days show no signs that Tehran will budge; neither is Washington letting up its pressure on Tehran. The United States has recently come up with intelligence alleging that Iran conducted “weaponization studies.” Tehran says the information was concocted.

On the same day that the UN Security Council voted on the new resolution, ElBaradei told the opening of an IAEA meeting of its board of governors that Iran needs to clear up such allegations.

“I urge Iran to be as active and as cooperative as possible in working with the agency to clarify this matter of serious concern,” ElBaradei said.

However, just before the 15-member Security Council voted on Resolution 1803, Deputy Head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization Mohammad Saeedi warned that “any irrational, illogical and unjudicial behavior will not only fail to solve Iran’s nuclear issue but will also make related equations further complicated and tougher.”

At the United Nations, Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Khazaee, anticipating adoption of a new sanctions resolution, described the Security Council’s decision as “unjust and irrational.”

It appears that curtains are already up for a fresh round of wrangling and haggling over the Iranian nuclear issue, analysts say.

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