By Mumtaz Alam Falahi, TwoCircles.net,
With 40 Lok Sabha seats, Bihar has always, particularly in the ongoing coalition era, played a key role in making and running the central government. After this election also, first in Bihar with BJP and its ally JD-U ruling the state, the most backward state will be among a few to determine who will be the next PM.
With JD-U leader and commonly described as serious, honest and secular politician Nitish Kumar completing three years as chief minister with no big communal riot, after dethroning two-decade long RJD regime in 2005, the million dollar questions are: Is Nitish being accepted by Muslims (16%) in the state as second Lalu Yadav? Or is JD-U getting Muslims’ support the way RJD did in the past or Janata Dal, RJD’s mother party, before it? How strong is MY (Muslim+Yadav) factor – the backbone of Lalu Yadav’s political life?
Muslim intellectuals TwoCircles.net talked to are unanimous: JD-U of Nitish Kumar will get more Muslim votes in this election than earlier ones; though Kumar is running the state government with the support of BJP, he is personally seen as a secular and serious politician having sympathy with Muslims; it’s almost impossible for UPA to retain its current Lok Sabha tally in the state (29 of 40 seats). However, they also agree: Lalu Yadav is still popular among Muslims; Nitish cannot match his charisma; though RJD governments did little for the community, Lalu is still remembered for stopping communal riots and arresting L K Advani during his bloody rath yatra; and hence Advani being projected as PM by the NDA – the coalition of JD-U, BJP and others – will keep majority of Muslims from JD-U.
Major issue before Muslims
Security, says Ehtesham Ahmad, ex-NABARD official and now columnist of Urdu daily Qaumi Awaz, is the major issue. First concern for Muslims is that there is no communal riot. That is the reason of Lalu Yadav’s popularity. He did little for Muslims in his 15 years rule, but did not allow riots to take place.
Maulana Abu Nasar Farooqi echoes him, and expresses concern that as elections are nearing, communal harmony is endangered as communal riots albeit at small scale are taking place in the state.
However, social activist Vilayat Ali says development is main issue; second is law and order. People want a government that seriously takes up these issues.
But Raihan Ghani, Editor, Urdu daily Pindar says there is no single major issue swaying the masses of Muslims across the state.
What did JD-U of Nitish Kumar do for Muslims?
Ehtesham Ahmad says Nitish is doing more work for Muslims than Lalu did. He ensured prosecution of Bhagalpur riots accused, gave compensation to the victims, and has launched various schemes for Muslim girls. “Compared to Lalu, his is a somber and sincere approach.”
Besides these, Raihan Ghani counts some other work done by JD-U government. They include scholarship schemes and graveyard fencing.
Advocate S S Javed Yusuf does not agree: JD-U government announced lots of schemes for Muslims in Bihar but implemented only a few of them. He did not work on education and economic uplift of the community. He has done nothing for the Kosi flood victims. Lakhs of people who were affected are yet to be rehabilitated. They are starving. The flood affected areas had heavy presence of Muslims.
Rather than doing for the development of the community, Yusuf says, Nitish has tried to further divide Muslims in castes and sub-castes by forming their organizations separately – the formula executed by Lalu.
Billboard listing schemes launched by the Nitish government for Muslims
Will Muslims vote for JD-U?
Nitish has a favorable condition in Bihar right now. Some Muslims will vote for his party JD-U. Where there are JD-U candidates, they will get Muslims support. Despite its association with BJP, JD-U has emerged as a secular party, avers Ehtesham Ahmad.
Raihan Ghani agrees. “Muslims will vote against BJP but some may vote for JD-U as Nitish has tried to prove by some work that he is sympathetic to Muslims,” Ghani says adding JD-U wants to test its popularity among Muslims by fielding candidates in Muslim-dominated seats like Kishanganj (BJP has contested these seats in the past). “If it wins, this will be a signal that majority of Muslims have gone with JD-U,” Ghani says.
Social activist Vilayat Ali says JD-U has favorable scenario. People think Nitish is working seriously and he is a man of vision. “His acceptability among Muslims has increased in last three years due to his work like regular grants to Madrasa Board and some work through the state minority commission.”
Maulana Farooqi says no party is truly sympathetic to the community. Parties have made promises only to break. Muslims vote out of compulsion as they have no option. “Nitish is in power and people worship the rising sun. He is seen as a good person, but he is not free as he is with BJP. Both RJD and JD-U will get Muslim votes,” says the Maulana.
Factors going against Nitish
Two main factors going against Nitish are Kosi flood devastation and projection of L K Advani as PM candidate of NDA. Though Kosi is not a big factor, but Advani issue will harm him as Muslims will not accept Advani as PM, says Ehtesham.
Raihan Ghani says: Opposition will use both Kosi and Advani issue and these will have some impact on voters, but not much as Nitish has done a lot of work for Muslims.
There is no question of Muslims supporting Advani as PM. Muslims will never support BJP and Sangh Parivar, Maulana Farooqi says.
Advocate Javed Yusuf says Nitish government has failed in providing relief and rehabilitation to Kosi flood affected people. People are starving there. This will hamper JD-U. People in the region will support Congress and RJD. Besides, Advani factor will also annoy Muslims.
MY mantra and Lalu Yadav
MY (Muslim+Yadav) factor is not as strong today as it was before, says Ehtesham Ahmad. Yadavas have disillusioned with Lalu. RJD is not active, it is not in motion. Nitish has emerged stronger in last three years. Lalu has lost some Muslim support as Nitish has dinted his popularity among Muslims.
Raihan Ghani agrees: Lalu’s MY base has got weakened because people think in 15 years of his rule Lalu actually did little for Muslims or Yadavas, rather he used MY as an English language word and did all for himself and his family.
Yadav leader Ranjan Yadav has recently joined JD-U after leaving LJP of Ram Vilas Paswan. This will also affect Lalu.
However, social activist Vilayat Ali says: Not much Yadavas have gone to JD-U. RJD still has a base though UPA may not get more than what they have today.
Advocate Javed Yusuf agrees with him. Ranjan Yadv joining JD-U will not affect Lalu as the former has no vote bank, he has no constituency. Ranjan was promoted by Lalu as he was his teacher, but when he challenged Lalu he was kicked out. Yusuf also says that Muslims are still with RJD as they think it gave them more security. However, he concedes MY factor did not work much in the last assembly elections in 2005 and RJD lost. This was because Yadavas did not vote for the party. “They have accepted their mistake and are returning to RJD again,” says Yusuf adding MY factor is intact.
There are 55 Yadav MLAs in the present state Assembly. Of them, 38 are either of JD-U or BJP or non-RJD party.
Will UPA retain its current 29 LS seats in Bihar?
No, UPA may not retain its current tally of 29 seats in the state. Some will fall to Nitish’ party JD-U, says Ehtesham. Agrees Raihan Ghani, saying UPA will lose some of its current seats to JD-U.
Maulana Farooqi is rightly angry that so-called secular parties give more attention to their own interests than to the community or voters. Asked will UPA retain its seats, he said, “They are selfish, they are not serious against communal forces. Had they been so, they would have won the last assembly elections.”
In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections (RJD, Cong, LJP fought united) UPA got 43% of votes. That was 6% more than NDA. But in 2005 Assembly elections wherein they were less united the UPA got 40% of votes. Besides, since 2005 the state has seen 3 Lok Sabha and 4 Assembly byelections. The NDA has not only retained its seats but also snatched Manihari Assembly seat from UPA. NDA also won Bikramganj Lok Sabha poll in 2007. Lalu Yadav has personally camped in the constituency for a week for campaigning.
Expected division of Muslim votes between UPA and NDA
Out of 10 Muslims, 7 will vote for UPA and 3 for NDA, estimates columnist Ehtesham Ahmad. Advocate S S Javed Yusuf thinks the same. But Pindar’s editor Raihan Ghani is not ready to say in so clear term. “More Muslims will vote for JD-U this time than last election, and this vote will definitely come from UPA,” he says. Social activist Vilayat Ali says: Muslims have gone to JD-U and are still going. How many Muslims will vote for RJD will depend on how strong its candidates are and how many Muslims are fielded by the party.
[Photo source: http://media1.itgo.in/indiatoday//images/stories//Anupam/090228082607_lalu1_250.jpg]