By M.R. Narayan Swamy, IANS,
New Delhi : In stark contrast to their public claims, all leading contenders for power in India are in a bind on government formation, given the badly fractured electoral verdict widely expected Saturday.
Sources with access to decision makers in the Congress, the Communists, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the so-called Fourth Front say almost everyone is formulating possible strategies while still in the dark.
The confusion arises from the realization that the Congress, BJP and the Third Front cannot form a government on their own strength and it is simply unclear who will end up backing whom in the numbers game.
Even if most exit polls and projections prove correct, the Congress, widely tipped to end up on top of a fractured 545-member Lok Sabha, will need to make up with the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) against whom it fought the Lok Sabha elections.
None of the three is very keen about propping up another Congress-led government. And knowing they will not have many seats to command, they are in touch with several players, the Left included, so as to increase their bargaining power.
But one thing is certain: the Samajwadi Party will not go where its foe Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is, and Lalu Prasad’s RJD will keep away from any formation that includes the ruling Janata Dal-United (JD-U) in Bihar.
In a worse case scenario involving BSP, the Samajwadi Party could even throw its weight behind the BJP, against whose president Rajnath Singh it did not field a candidate in Uttar Pradesh’s Ghaziabad constituency, even though it would pay a heavy price vis-�-vis its Muslim support base.
The Congress is acutely aware of the contradictions to be thrown up by the new Lok Sabha that go against its interests.
Congress strategists have concluded by now that it is too late to kiss and make up with the Left, in particular Prakash Karat, the general secretary of the Communist Party of India-Maxist (CPI-M), a key figure in the Third Front. And if they do, Mamata Banerjee will walk away in West Bengal.
Similarly, if the Congress were to embrace the AIADMK, it would lose the DMK in Tamil Nadu.
The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) are unlikely to support a Congress government since they consider the party their main foe. But they can take Congress backing for a government that includes them.
The Congress is in no mood to repeat the 1996-98 experiment of keeping afloat a Third Front (then United Front) government – unless and until there is no other way to prevent the BJP from taking office.
The BJP is discounting the possibility of a Third Front ruling India and is scouting for numbers. Its sneaking suspicion is that in the likely event of a hazy verdict, President Pratibha Patil could tilt towards the Congress.
The BJP too knows it will be difficult to pick and choose in Uttar Pradesh (BSP/Samajwadi) and Tamil Nadu (DMK/AIADMK) but it can return to Mamata Banerjee. It won’t also mind doing business again with Orissa’s ruling BJD.
In any case, none of them will take the plunge without knowing what is in it for them – both in the short and long terms.
A BJP leader admitted to IANS: “This is the mother of all confusing elections. We know there will be a stalemate. The point is whether we can get the support of three major regional actors with about 55 MPs between them. If we do that, we will be in. If not, we are out.”
The Left’s best bet is a united Third Front. CPI-M strategists have told regional chieftains that while some of them will be able to cut seemingly attractive deals with the Congress and BJP, a united Third Front will command a greater price. They cite their own example vis-�-vis the Congress-led government, which they backed from the outside until last year.
“Take the NCP (Nationalist Congress Party). What influence did it command over the Manmohan Singh government apart from having two ministries? But we, the Left, without being in the government, commanded a much bigger clout,” a CPI-M Central Committee member told IANS, not wishing to be identified at this point of time.
“The point is numbers. We had 60 MPs. Now the Third Front will have over 100 MPs. But we know our argument may not be acceptable to those used to being in the government.”
The Fourth Front and smaller parties across the country are in no better shape. And some of them are looking in the direction of NCP chief Sharad Pawar, a man whose prime ministerial ambitions are acceptable to a wide range of players ranging from the AIADMK to sections of the Shiv Sena.
But the Congress does not want to see as prime minister someone who tripped Sonia Gandhi ahead of the 1999 Lok Sabha elections by raising the bogey of her foreign origin.
Said the leader of a regional political party in southern India: “Frankly we are totally confused. If instability persists, there will be another Lok Sabha election within a year.”