By Soroor Ahmed, TwoCircles.net,
The return to power of the Bharatiya Janata Party-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha government in Jharkhand does not augur well for the Congress as it prepares for the assembly election in Bihar scheduled in October-November 2010. Though several political observers do not rule out Uttar Pradesh type Rahul magic in Bihar, the truth is that the latter has more things in common with Jharkhand, which was its part till November 15, 2000, than its western neighbour. Thus any political development in Jharkhand on the eve of assembly election is bound to have some affect on the Congress and its workers in Bihar.
Congress’ utter failure to form government in Jharkhand after last winter Assembly election notwithstanding the fact that it, along with pre-poll partner, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha, won maximum number of seats, is certainly a big political set-back. The party failed to capitalize on the BJP-JMM rift in May last and once again allowed the two warring parties to come closer and form a government in the state.
Bihar’s social combination has more similarity with Jharkhand, where too upper caste votes,though influential, is not sizeable enough to make any big change. In contrast Uttar Pradesh has the highest upper caste concentration in the country––according to NSS estimate 21.3 per cent––which is almost double than in Bihar or Jharkhand, where the estimated figure varies from 10 to 15 per cent. Similarly the Schedule Castes percentage, according to 2001 Census, in UP is 21.1 while in Bihar 15.1. So a comparison of Bihar with UP is somewhat misplaced. If Jharkhand has about 27 per cent tribal population Bihar has almost the same percentage of Extremely Backward Caste population. If Bihar has 16.5 per cent Muslims, the latter form 13.8 per cent of population in Jharkhand.
So if Congress won just one seat in Jharkhand in the last Lok Sabha election, it met almost the same fate in Bihar, where it bagged just two seats. The Congress performance was far from expectation in the November-December 2009 assembly election in that state. It won just 14 seats out of 56 it contested while its partner, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha of the former chief minister Babulal Marandi, got 11 out of 25 it fought. This notwithstanding so much media hype about the Rahul factor in that state.
Congress is pinning its hope on upper castes and Muslim votes in Bihar. True a sizeable section of upper castes, especially having rural base, are unhappy with the National Democratic Alliance government following the chief minister Nitish Kumar’s reported bid to enact a new Bataidari (sharecropper) law last year. But so far Muslim votes are concerned it now also depends on the way the politics take a turn after the September 24 court ruling on Ayodhya. Besides, it is a fact that Muslims still look with suspicion towards Janata Dal (United), which has alliance with the BJP. For a huge majority of them the RJD-LJP alliance is still the best bet.
The state assembly elections are often different from parliamentary elections. Besides, there is no leader of the stature of Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan––all non-upper caste–in Congress. In Jharkhand too the Congress is without any towering personality, especially from among the tribals. So it has to depend on Babulal Marandi of the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha.In UP both Rahul and mother Sonia Gandhi have more personal and political stakes and have done enough for their constituencies to bring about some surprise results in 2009 Lok Sabha election. But nothing of that sort exists in Bihar.
As in Kolkata so in Saharsa and Samastipur in Bihar on September 4 Rahul asked the youths to come forward to provide clean, efficient and corruption-free government, but the problem with the party is that ever since last Lok Sabha election it has managed to woo controversial figures like Pappu Yadav and Anand Mohan Singh, Lalu Yadav’s brother-in-law, Sadhu Yadav and party-hopper Nagmani. Even Ejaz-ul-Haque, one time close aide of controversial RJD MP,Mohammad Shahabuddin of Siwan, is reportedly knocking at the door.
While Pappu Yadav is undergoing life-term for the murder of CPI(M) MLA, Ajit Sarkar in 1998, Anand Mohan got life imprisonment for the December 1994 murder of the then district magistrate of Gopalganj, G Krishnaiya.
So the resurgent Congress has now the capability to make the contest triangular, yet it would be premature to state that it would brought in a miracle like the one caused by Rahul Gandhi in the last Lok Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh.
The ruling Janata Dal (United) is more panicky because Congress is likely to eat into its upper caste support base. However, only time will tell how much impact the party will have on Dalit and Backward Caste votes, for which RJD-LJP alliance and Janata Dal United-BJP combination seem to be equally poised..