By Manish Chand, IANS,
New Delhi/Islamabad : With the talks between the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan ending with a decision to explore more cross-Kashmir CBMs, the focus has now shifted to the unfolding Afghan great game and how it will influence the course of the resumed dialogue process between the two estranged neighbours.
The two-day talks between Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao and her Pakistani counterpart Salman Bashir that ended in Islamabad Friday took place in the shadow of US President Barack Obama’s announcement of a phased drawdown of troops from Afghanistan that included the return of 10,000 troops by the end of the year and another 20,000 in 2012.
In his speech, much to India’s comfort, Obama spared no words in warning Pakistan to dismantle the “safe havens” of terror, thereby putting the spotlight on Islamabad’s increasingly important role in influencing the reconciliation process in Afghanistan.
“Our efforts must also address terrorist safe-havens in Pakistan. No country is more endangered by the presence of violent extremists, which is why we will continue to press Pakistan to expand its participation…and we will insist that it keep its commitments,” said Obama.
It was a clear message to Pakistan that its military-intelligence establishment that is widely suspected of nurturing the Taliban and using militants as strategic assets will be under under closer scrutiny than before.
The US, therefore, noted approvingly efforts by India and Pakistan to continue the dialogue process that was frozen for over two years since 26/11 attacks till both sides decided to resume it in February.
The spotlight is now clearly on the Afghan factor.
In her testimony to a Congressional panel, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke about how Afghanistan was at the centre of rivalry between India and Pakistan.
She stressed that Pakistan does not want Afghanistan to become a satellite of India. “So it (Pakistan) has in the past invested in a certain amount of instability in Afghanistan,” she said in her testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
In a sense, the course of India-Pakistan relations and the revived engagement will depend on what happens in Afghanistan, said G. Parthasarathy, a former Indian envoy to Pakistan. “If the jihad instigated by Pakistan succeeds, there is nothing that is going to prevent them from turning in on us,” Parthasarathy told IANS.
“Right now, they are under enormous pressure from the US to engage with India and to deliver on terror,” said Parthasarathy, adding that the engagement with India will deprive Pakistan of their favourite excuse not to concentrate on combating the Taliban in Afghanistan.
“This engagement is taking place without any forward movement by Pakistan on terror or 26/11 trial,” said Satish Chandra, a former deputy national security adviser and a former Indian envoy to Pakistan.
“The talks were based on the premise that it helps to have a modus vivendi with Pakistan regardless of whether they deliver on terror,” he said. “Like it or not, Pakistan is going to be a key player in the Afghan settlement and the talks were a recognition of that reality,” stressed Chandra.
In the talks that ended Friday, the two sides managed to keep up a brave front by agreeing to bridge divergences as they decided to explore a slew of confidence-building measures to enhance travel and trade across the ceasefire line dividing the two halves of Kashmir.
Expect more fire on Kashmir when the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan meet in New Delhi in July.
(Manish Chand can be contacted at [email protected])