Dr. Mohammad Nazrul Bari,
Since the Godhra riots of 2002, voices ranging from Congress party members, Muslim interest groups, social activists, and print and television journalists have accused and insinuated that Modi was responsible for the violence.
The most famous Congress byte on him was when party president Sonia Gandhi called him a ‘maut ka saudagar’ (Merchant of death). Last year, another byte came from Congress veteran Mani Shankar Iyer who said that Modi wasn’t being demonized, but in fact was a ‘Ravan’. He also termed him as “Lahu Purush” (blood man) in the wake of 2002 Gujarat riots. Congress Rajya Sabha MP, Hussain Dalwai, said “Modi is just a mouse before Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel”. Bharat Solanki, Union Minister for Drinking Water and Sanitation, decided to beat all in the abuses being hurled at Modi and termed him as “Nathuram Godse” and alleged that “under the BJP rule in Gandhi’s Gujarat not truth but lies carry more currency”. Salman Khurshid, two years back said that Muslim support to Modi in Gujarat is a result of “Stockholm syndrome…where the oppressed praise the oppressor”. In fact, as the data suggest it works in favour of Modi who will continue to espouse the cause of Gujarati Asmita and portray himself as a lone gladiator taking on the baddies for Congress.
Narendra Modi
The Congress party, nonetheless, has lot of ammunition in their arms if they focus on the dark side of Gujarat’s development success story. The 2011 India Human Development Report found that Gujarat had one of the worst levels of hunger and malnutrition in the country and indicated a lack of basic amenities for the welfare Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribe communities. The state’s development story has exposed the natural urban-rural disharmony in India as farmers in the state regularly protest against land-acquisition for industrial and urban development projects. In August, 2010, over 60 villages in the Vadodara and Baruch districts held a rally protesting the acquisition of their lands under the National Highway Authority of India Act demanding a compensation package not even guaranteed to them under the law. In May, 2010, more than 5000 farmers staged on a protest march, dubbed as the ‘Jal Jameen Jungle Bachao Yatra’, in Bhavnagar district against the state government’s industrial policies to convert farmland into industrial zones. The Government of Gujarat has displaced Sikhs from Kutch region in the name of development. On top of that, the state government detained participants and prohibited the farmers from carrying out the rally. In my opinion, the Congress party should make the urban-rural disparity in the state their prime cannon in a sustained offensive, to turn Modi’s ‘Development Guru’ image on its head and gain some level of political traction in and outside Gujarat. Yet, only the party leadership knows why they don’t make as much noise about these issues!
In the assembly election last year, people in Gujarat handed over to Narendra Modi’s BJP on a platter. The row kicked up by other parties and the media — with Sonia Gandhi calling “merchants of death” — is worked entirely to Modi’s advantage. The violation of human rights, which worries those outside Gujarat, appear to bother Gujarati Hindus very little. They are more worried by Islamic militancy, and support fake encounters to overcome it. Modi appeals to the Hindu vote by saying that so called Islamic terrorists have killed 5,617 Indians in the last three years, but only one has died in Gujarat, showing how well the BJP protects Hindus. Sonia Gandhi may be accurate in calling Modi and his satraps merchants of death. But since so many Gujarati voters view these very merchants of death as extra-judicial protectors of Hindus, the accusation may work to Modi’s advantage.
Now the question arises that is Congress’s negative campaign against Narendra Modi on regular interval is the part of a larger game aimed at its own advantage and part of a hidden agenda?
The elections analysis since 2002 Assembly (Gujarat) and 2004 Loksabha is definitely pointing out to some other direction. In 2002 and 2007 Gujarat’s Assembly elections 66% and 69% Muslim voted in favour of the Congress while 20% and 24% voted for the BJP even after Gujarat carnage under the leadership of Narendra Modi. The vote share of the Congress at the both the time was 39% only even after so much of personal attack related with Modi’s role in Gujarat riots. Surprisingly, Congress vote share in Lok Sabha elections in 2004 and 2009 remained intact at 43% in Gujarat. But aggressive campaign against Modi and BJP’s communal agenda is working in state where Congress has a direct fight with BJP and regional parties as reflected by voting pattern by the Muslim especially.The Muslim voters returning back as reflected by 69% votes in 2004 and 70% in 2009 Lok Sabha election to Congress where they had a direct fight with BJP while in the states where regional parties are there, Muslim now start trusting Congress as proved by 29% and 33% by them in 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Above analysis is also reflected by the total all India share vote share of Congress in 2004 which was 26.5% and 28.6% in 2009 while in bipolar contest they got 39.6% to 42.3%. In states where regional parties were in the fray the share was 22.5% and 24.9% in the same period show CSDS data.
How this development is not known to Congress stalwarts? Is the negative campaigns on Modi by Congress is really helping both Congress as well as Modi? As per the record, Congress is getting personal in its attack on Modi during the Assembly elections in Gujarat since 2002 which helped Modi to polarize the support for his image of “Hindu Hirdey Samrat” and Congress is now successful projecting him Prime Ministerial candidate inside BJP against Advani and others as now visible through resentments within BJP.
As in 1998 and 1999 (NDA Government) many regional parties including Telgu Desham Party (TDP), Trinimool Congress, JD(U), BSP etc. supported BJP’S Prime Ministerial candidate Atal Bihari Vajpaee because of his soft hindutva image but had objection on the name of Lal Krishna Advani (the Mascot of BJP in 1980s and 1990s). Now the same political parties like JU(U), TDP, Trinamool Congress and others maintaining distance from BJP on the name of Modi.
At last we can safely conclude as per the evidences that Congress is possibly hitting three birds in one stone by targeting Modi in his role in 2002 Gujarat’s pogrom. First they are successful in polarizing anti-Modi especially Muslim vote in Loksabha as reflected in 2004 and 2009. Secondly, it is creating rift within BJP and NDA in the name of Modi as a next Prime Ministerial candidate and third to polarize the people on the name of secularism and secular fabric of India.
I wish I could be wrong.
(Dr.Mohammad Nazrul Bari is the Assistant Professor at the Department of History in the Central University of Karnataka, Gulbarga.)