By M Reyaz, TwoCircles.net,
Kabul: The process of finding a successor to Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai may drag for at least two more months now as none of the candidates have got the required 50% votes in the preliminary results announced on Saturday evening.
According to the Afghanistan Independent Election Commission (IEC), Former Foreign Minister and a close aide of Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Masoud, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, who was leading from the announcement of the first round of result, has maintained the lead with 44.9% of the total votes polled, although he has fallen short of 50% mark. The tally of nearest rival Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, former Finance Minister and World Bank employee, came down slightly from the second round of result announced earlier to 31.5%. Dr Abdullah has got a total of 2,973,706 votes, while Dr Ghani was 884,289 votes behind with 2,089,417 votes.
Zalmai Rasoul, whom President Karzai had supported – though not officially – has ended as distant third with 11.5% of the total votes polled. He, however, managed to get the majority of votes in Kandahar province and has got considerable votes in other Pashtun dominated provinces in East Afghanistan.
Known for his hardline stand, Prof-Abdo Rabe Rasool Sayyaf could garner only 7.1% of the votes, but he did manage to get over 30% of votes in Nuristan, over 25% in Wardak and over 13% in Pakita. Other candidates, Eng- Qutbuddin Hilal (2.7%), Mohd. Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzai (1.5%)), Mohammad Daoud Sultanzoy (0.5%), and Hedayat Amin Arsala (0.2%)) could manage less than 5% of votes among themselves.
Muhammad Yousuf Nursitani, the head of IEC announced the preliminary results on Saturday evening, two days late than originally scheduled date of April 24. In response to a question on possible round-off he said, “From what we’ve analyzed so far, we might go into a runoff. But we hope not,” hinting at possible negotiation between the two leading candidates, adding that if runoffs were to happen, it will take place on June 7. It was originally scheduled for May 28.
Asked about the preparedness of the run-off, which appears likely, unless there is some sort of ‘deal’ between the leading candidates, the Head of IEC Secretariat, Zia-ul-Haq Amarkhail added that the “IEC had planned ahead for a possible runoff, both financially and technically.”
Earlier Nuristani also elaborated on the auditing process, adding that of the originally estimated 7.5 million votes, 234,674 votes have been invalidated. Of nearly 7 million valid votes (6,892,816), 64% were males and 36% were females.
Afghanistan had created history on April 5 by turning out in large number to vote for the first transition of power since Hamid Karzai took over after NATO intervention in 2001, braving the incessant rain and threats issued by Taliban. 7 million of the 12 million eligible voters (about 60%) had turned out at 6,212 polling stations defying Taliban’s attempt to sabotage the election process for a peaceful transition.
The IEC had announced the partial results on three dates earlier, before the announcement of the preliminary result today.
The Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) has received about 900 serious complaints (total over 3000), of which about half are related to the Presidential Election, and rest in connection with the Provincial election held simultaneously. The final result can take weeks more to come only after all the complaints are deposed.
As per the Constitution, if no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in the first round a run-off must be held pitting the top two candidates against each other that may elongate the whole process into months.
In the 2009 Presidential election, Dr Abdullah had reicved over 30% votes, but withdrew from the race just few days before the second round, accusing Karzai of widespread corruption using state machinery.
Even before the election there were rumours of some ‘understanding and deal’ to avoid second round. Dr Abdullah has made it very clear though that he and Ghani are not in any kind of negotiation.
Meanwhile, the mood on Kabul street is not in favour of another election as they fathom long wait, wastage of large amount of money and security risk.
Related:
Resilient Afghans come out in large number despite Taliban threats
Nostalgia for Karzai era grips many Afghans
Abdullah leading in partial election result, Ghani still not out of the race