By Parvez Alam,
Considering the communal divide and polarization of votes in Indian politics, the party (and RSS) responsible for several riots is surging ahead against the entire national and regional parties in this general election according to media reports. Analysts have started speculating about the policies and reforms which is going to take place after 16 May, the date set to announce the result, which media have already declared Bhartiya Janta Party’s Narendra Modi, currently chief minister of Gujarat, as the next PM of the largest democracy in the world.
The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) party which lacked political leadership couple of years ago, has consolidated a lot in this general election. It is the strength in communalism, which consolidate this party again and again, because the symbolism work faster than the enlightenment in the minds of the folks who are still to be the proper citizen of this country. The subject who is on the periphery is easy to be mobilized in the name of God and culture. This has happened in the past in the enlightened lot of Europe and United States, and it is not exception in India after 1925, the year which marked the communalization of Indian subcontinent.
Narendra Modi [TCN file photo]
However, as the elections are almost about to get over it still seems unlikely that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be able to reach the magic number. Let me come straight to the point that Why BJP & Co. will not touch the magic figure of 272+? First of all, unlike the previous elections where competition was mainly between two major parties Bhartiya Janta Party (legacy of RSS, organization involved in the assassination of father of the nation) and Indian National Congress (the legacy of British India nationalist movement), this election also marks the end of the binary identity of communal-secular adding further into it the developmental model of inclusion and exclusion.
The binary has shaken only because of the intense politicization of the ordinary folk, resulting into the social movements against corruption, centralization of power into the hands of few and crony capitalism. Basically the consolidation of ordinary folk (subjects) of the periphery saw the beacon of hope in the politicization of self. Its different matter altogether that, whether politicization is going to result into material benefit or not but one thing is sure that the political dynamics of this huge country is going to change and the seats of power of social and cultural elite have started shaking.
UP and Bihar (120 seats)
Another specific development in this general election is that, the regional parties are not going to shrink in the coming days. The biggest states which have more Lok Sabha seats have more regional parties. For example, Samajwadi Party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati led Bahujan Samaj Party are the two parties which are going to eat the seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP has 80 seats-maximum) on which BJP is basking upon. Likewise in Bihar, Janta Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar, Rashtriya Janta Dal led by Lalu Yadav are also going to spoil the dream of PM candidate of BJP. Interestingly these are the two states where BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate is doing road shows and rallies. He is also contesting from Varanasi, the constituency which is also among one of the holiest place in Hindu mythology. This move has another dimension of influencing more than dozen seats in the eastern Uttar Pradesh, the most poverty ridden, polarized and communalized regions in the state.
BJP+ – 60 and Others- 60
North East, Southern States and J&K (202)
Out of 28 States and 7 Union Territories in India, these regions combined are 14 states and 2 Union Territories. Though seat wise, each state doesn’t have as much seats as UP and Bihar but still combined, they have enough seats to stop the rathyatra of Narendra Modi and his allies. The total seats in these three regions including West Bengal are 202. Karnataka is the only state where BJP enjoys much influence but because they are out of power in the state it is unlikely that they will get more than 50% of seats. In other states, if BJP clinches one in each, then the maximum what BJP can gain is 15 seats in these areas. The speculation of getting even 15 seats is not possible because Mizoram, Nagaland, Puducherry and Lakshadweep have one parliamentary seat only. The reason BJP has not reached to these areas is, high literacy rates, social harmony among people and BJP itself. The demand for construction of temple since 1980s had only vulgarized the politics and raised BJP to power twice at the center and many states.
BJP+ – 15 seats
BJP ruled states including Punjab (110)
Currently BJP is ruling in 5 states which has 110 seats. If BJP gains maximum of 80 seats with its allies then it will be problem for the INC and its allies to stop the post-poll alliance formation by the BJP. Considering other parties influence in these states, INC have bleak chances of getting more than 25 seats. This means Aam Admi party can gain few seats. This equation reduces BJP to 70 seats.
BJP+ – 70 seats Others – 40 seats
Congress ruled states and others (109)
Congress excluding Kerala, Assam and other states which have been included already is also ruling in Maharashtra and Uttarakhand (53 seats). Currently Congress is ruling in 12 states. Maharashtra is another state where BJP and its allies are fighting against NCP and INC. BJP is likely to gain in congress ruling states because of anti-incumbency factor.
BJP+ – 50 seats Others – 59 seats
Conclusion
If we calculate all these seats which BJP and its allies are going to gain it is quite obvious that they are not going to get the full majority. But it is also obvious that because of the way manufactured consent had worked, created by corporate, media and intellectuals economist like Jagdish Bhagwati, BJP is surging ahead. The total seats which BJP will be earning would not be more than 200.
In this case the only way out for BJP would be to woo, Mamta Bannerjee, Jayalalitha and Mayawati, the three independent women leaders who can play active role in making of divisive government of Narendra Modi (NaMo or Feku famous on social networking sites) and can also jeopardize his dream of becoming the Prime Minister of India. The biggest challenge to BJP and INC is the third force led by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which is mix of communal, secular and developmentalism. The theory propounded by the political scientist and sociologist for alternative politics to dethrone both the national parties. The speculation in political galleries is that, BJP’s voters (mainly upper caste Brahmins and business+ middle class) are freezed for NaMo and AAP will eat up Congress votes. Rahul Gandhi, great grandson of Nehru is the probable candidate for PM, Arvind Kejriwal the anti-graft crusader is leading AAP. The political battle in India is heating up as the summer has begun.
(Parvez Alam is Research Scholar at Academy of International Studies, New Delhi, India.)
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