By Misbahuddin Mirza
The figures from the 2011 Census of India are here. The numbers matched predictions, based on previous growth patterns. While the changes were in line with forecasts, yet, commentators have had a field day. There has been a plethora of sensational commentaries about the differential between the growth rates of Hindus and Muslims. The hypotheses forwarded follow the stereotypical, unreasoned, oversimplified mantra blaming the Muslims religious persuasions and illegal migration from neighboring countries. Some have pointed out about the political aspects: the benefits to certain political parties; the potential benefits that can be reaped if the Muslims were to unite, etc. However, no one is talking about the elephant in the room. The most obvious factor that is affecting the difference between the growth rates of these two communities is – female feticide.
The first census carried out after India’s independence was in 1951. However, we cannot use the 1951 census for the present discussion as it did not include the population of Jammu and Kashmir in it. So, let us use the 1961 Indian Census as a baseline – which showed the population of Indian Hindus as 83.45%. This brief, rough analysis shows that if the factor of female feticide is removed from the equation, the percentage of Hindus today would have been around the 1961 levels.
First, to set the record straight, the 2011 Census shows that the population of both Hindus and Muslims increased since the last census. The census also showed a decline in the population’s growth factor for both Hindus, as well as for Muslims. The question here is regarding the differential in the growth rate of the Hindus versus that of the Muslims.
There are secondary factors such as anecdotal evidence, as well as census data suggesting that (the high level of education, employment, and affluence among) the urban Hindus corresponding to smaller urban Hindu families. But, the following brief attempts to focus on the single apparent primary reason for the subject difference – female feticide.
In the 1980’s with the availability of technologies for determination of the unborn’s sex, female feticide soon became rampant in India. The subsequent Indian Censuses started showing the toll female feticide was taking on the population growth rate of the Hindu community. This correlation is clearly supported by the census2011 website statement http://www.census2011.co.in/sexratio.php: “The major cause of the decrease of the female birth ratio in India is considered to be the violent treatments meted out to the girl child at the time of the birth. The Ratio in India was almost normal during the phase of the years of independence, but thereafter it started showing gradual signs of decrease….”
The normal male to female ratio is 104 to 107 females for every 100 men. Any changes to this range is questioned/ studied by experts. Some experts try to challenge this use of male-female ratio to estimate the number of feticides, by getting into complex medical discussions pertaining to intricacies relating to the X and Y chromosomes. However, most experts do use the male-female ratio as the basis for estimating the number of feticides.
The Lancet, a British Medical journal, in a 2011 study stated that 12 million fetuses were aborted in India in the previous 30 years.
An article in Al Jazeera had pointed out to the dire situation in some north Indian states where men now have to travel to other states such as Bihar, Bengal, and as far away as Kerala to find a bride. Another Al Jazeera article mentioned an estimate that by 2020 India would have 28 million men of marriageable age who will not find a bride, and pointed out that no Indian Police force would be able to deal with this large a population group, should they start perpetuating violence against women.
Sunny Hundal’s August 8, 2013 Al Jazeera article “India’s 60 million women that never were,” pointed out some very interesting facts. He quoted Amartya Sen’s statement about 100 million missing Asian women, and the 2005 New York Times’ estimate of 50 million missing Indian women. He pointed out that in the 2011 census, there were 37.25 million fewer women than men, and that to match this shortage along with the addition of natural male-female ratio, would require 60 to 70 million additional women.
That is, feticide has drastically reduced the number of would-be-Hindu women. Even if a conservative number of 80% (for percentage of Hindus) is used; it works out to 48 million (out of total 60 million would be women) fewer Hindu women in the 2011 census, then that would have been present, had feticide not been practiced. Putting this in a different way, if the factor of feticide was not present, the 2011 Census of India would have shown a total Hindu population of 1.0143 billion, instead of the existing 966.3 million. Factoring in the cumulative effects of the would-be-reproductive females, the population percentage of Hindus would have been even higher and have been equal to or greater than the 1961 levels.
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(Misbahuddin Mirza, M.S., P.E., is a licensed Professional Engineer, registered in the States of New York and New Jersey. He is the Regional Quality Control Engineer for the New York State Department of Transportation’s Structures Division, New York City area. He has written for major US and Indian publications.)