By Faisal Fareed, TwoCircles.net
A pre-poll alliance between Samajwadi Party and Congress appears inevitable in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Vidhan Sabha polls.
Some reports have even declared seat sharing for the alliance—SP will leave 110 seats which will be shared as 72 seats with Congress and 38 for RLD and JD (U). The final numbers may differ, but alliance appears to be going in the right direction.
Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav on several occasions has categorically stated that he can win 300 seats if elections are contested in an alliance. His statement has sealed the pact and the initiative has been taken. There will morally difficult position for SP to overlook the statement of its own CM and successor. Though morals are hard to find in politics.
Akhilesh is in favour of alliance because he knows it works to his advantage. First, he will settle the internal dispute with one stroke as he will be unanimous CM face of the alliance. This will also result in a fresh ticket distribution, and he will have his say. Presently, almost every supporter of Akhilesh has been denied a ticket and even sitting legislators and ministers will not be given ticket. State president Shivpal Yadav has sidelined his supporters first in organisation and now in ticket distribution. With an alliance where Akhilesh is leader, he will settle all scores in his own party. Also, by going for an alliance, Akhilesh will have a psychological edge among voters that his alliance is the only alternative for anti-BJP votes. Presently the voters mainly Muslims are uncertain and are likely to split between BSP and others giving an edge to BJP.
For the Congress, this alliance will be of immense help as the party has failed to click in UP for the past 27 years. With almost no chance of winning, the grand old party is hoping that it gets into a respectable situation in these polls, so that it has the moral courage to contest 2019 Lok Sabha polls. An alliance will save it from contesting on all seats and thus the humiliation of forfeiting deposits.
For RLD, there has to be alliance whether it is BJP or Congress, as it has limited clout in pockets and JD (U) is all eager to get anything as it will be a big bonus for the party.
Why is the alliance not yet in shape?
It is perhaps a strange situation: leaders of both SP and Congress are announcing publicly in favour of alliance, but it is not taking shape. Obviously it means that there is some bottleneck in the alliance formation. A closer look points that the alliance is stuck due to SP president Mulayam Singh Yadav. These days Mulayam is giving more importance to Amar Singh who is being targeted by Akhilesh. Amar has got all the previous powers, status and posts in the party which he held before he was expelled from the party. SP leaders confide that it is due to this factor that alliance is not being formally announced.
In coming days don’t be surprised if an alliance is announced which will have Akhilesh, Congress and others sans Mulayam. It may sound unrealistic but such things happen in politics.