By Soroor Ahmed, Twocircles.net
The ‘uncivil war’ in the Samajwadi Party is likely to have its impact not only on the ruling party of Uttar Pradesh, but on its arch-rival, the Bharatiya Janata Party too. This is a unique situation in which the family feud in one party may mar the poll prospect of the other.
The BJP is alarmed because the infighting within the Samajwadi Party may force an overwhelming number of its committed voters, especially the Muslims and some backward castes to move towards the Bahujan Samaj Party. Till now the BJP was banking on the hope that Muslim votes would get divided between BSP and SP and thus would facilitate the victory of saffron party.
As the BSP has recovered a lot of ground, which it lost in 2012 and 2014 Assembly and Lok /Sabha elections respectively its leader, Mayawati, has emerged as a front-runner for the post of chief minister. The massive BSP rally of October 9 in Lucknow stands as a testimony to his fact.
With 21.3% Dalit and 19.3% Muslim votes, the social equation in Uttar Pradesh will tilt in favour of the BSP, if the minority votes shift heavily in favour of Mayawati.
In spite of Muzaffarnagar riots of September 2013 and incumbency factor, Samajwadi Party managed to get 58% Muslim vote in 2014 Lok Sabha election. The BSP and Congress got just 18 and 11 per cent Muslim votes respectively. The community largely voted for Mulayam Singh’s party because it found Samajwadi Party better placed to counter BJP than the Congress and BSP. But this did not stop BJP-led alliance from winning 73 seats.
Notwithstanding general disillusionment, the Samajwadi Party could have repeated its performance this time, had there been no infighting. Akhilesh Singh Yadav has at least cultivated the image of young, dynamic and progressive-looking chief minister free from any controversy. But the full-blown family feud so close to Assembly election has seriously marred the Samajwadi Party’s prospect. No doubt, as always, Muslim votes would split in 2017 too, but not in that proportion as was feared till a few weeks back. If the BSP manages to woo a big majority of its vote––as it seems now––it would be much better placed in 2017.
The rally in Lucknow clearly indicated that Muslims have almost made up their mind to overwhelmingly vote for Mayawati’s party. It also shows that the BSP has won back the support of non-Ravidas Dalits into its fold. Needless to say Ravidas form two-thirds of Dalit votes in UP. Developments in other states and even in UP compelled all the Dalits to close their ranks.
Not only is the BSP supremo better equipped to defeat the BJP she has, perhaps, for the first time, openly wooed Muslims towards her side.
Besides, Dalits and Muslims are not only coming together in Uttar Pradesh. Even in Gujarat, the home state of prime minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah, the two communities are coming closer.
In contrast Congress party is not in position to attract the Muslim votes towards its side as it lacks any state-level leader of Mayawati’s stature.
However, there is another possibility. If Akhilesh finally breaks from the SP and join hands with the Congress the situation may change a bit. In recent weeks both he and Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi have praised each other.
Apart from BSP, the BJP can claim to have a strong social base in UP. Upper castes and trading communities together form about one-fourth of population. Besides, the BJP can manage some backward caste and floating votes of all the communities. But as the possibility of Muslim votes going to SP have receded after the turmoil in the party the chance of the BJP bouncing back looks a bit remote.