By Manish Chand, IANS
New Delhi, Sep 30 (IANS) India’s guarded response to the crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Myanmar in the face of mounting global outrage has exposed New Delhi’s policy towards Yangon to closer scrutiny and also put the spotlight on the economic and strategic imperatives driving its engagement with the junta.
India’s carefully calibrated position calling for “expediting” the process of national reconciliation and making the political reforms “inclusive and broad-based” in Myanmar has been seen by some critics as wishy-washy and a tactful refusal to take a position on the pro-democracy fervour sweeping the neighbouring country.
Some critics have also suggested that India shed its circumspection and go the whole hog in supporting the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar, the land-locked Southeast Asian country formerly called Burma that has been ruled by the junta for over four decades.
The US and the European Union have urged India, China and Russia, the three big Asian countries with substantial stakes in Myanmar, to use their influence with the junta to nudge it towards real political reforms. The UN has joined in the chorus of global outrage against the violent crackdown on pro-democracy marchers, most of them Buddhist monks, which left over 10 dead since the protests began over a month ago on the sharply escalating fuel prices.
Although New Delhi is slightly defensive about its stance, specially after the bad timing of Petroleum Minister Murli Deora’s visit to Yangon last Sunday just when the pro-democracy protests were peaking, it has made clear that it is not going to abandon the policy of engagement with the junta in the larger national interest.
“Why blame us? It’s not just India which is doing business with Myanmar. Almost the whole world is doing business with the junta,” an official, who did not wish to be named, told IANS.
New Delhi’s conscious policy to stay engaged with the junta is driven by three strategic and economic factors; the increasing influence of China in Myanmar which has cornered most of the big oil and gas and infrastructure projects in that country; the location of Myanmar makes it a terrestrial link to India’s northeast and gives it influence over Indian insurgent groups; and, most importantly, oil and gas which Myanmar has in abundance.
Put together, this broad strategic and economic calculus gives a pause to South Block even if it were to rethink its policy and start proactively supporting the democracy movement in Myanmar.
“The West has no stakes in Myanmar. India, on the contrary, has real economic and strategic stakes there,” Professor S.D. Muni, an expert at Jawaharlal Nehru University and a former Indian envoy to Laos, told IANS.
“If we support democracy, the junta will start supporting insurgent groups in the northeast. Our relations with Myanmar have a national security angle to it,” Muni stressed.
Ashok Mehta, a retired major general and a strategic expert, agrees that it would be unrealistic for India to think of a radical shift in its current policy of engaging the junta.
“To think of abandoning the junta and joining forces of democracy in Myanmar is a tough call for India,” Mehta said.
“Till 1992-1993, India was with the pro-democracy forces, but that policy was not paying off. India then did a u-turn and this policy shift was dictated by national interests,” he added.
“India is desperately seeking a plan B (supporting democracy movement) in Myanmar but it does not have one yet. Under the circumstances, it has done the right thing. New Delhi has said the junta must not resort to violence to put down protests but expedite the process of national reconciliation,” he said.
Udai Bhanu Sinha, a specialist on Southeast Asia at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), advocates a “dual approach” for protecting India’s vital interests in Myanmar that includes a government-to-government dialogue and a simultaneous activating of Track-II diplomacy revolving around people-to-people contacts, specially between Buddhists of the two countries.
“You can’t underestimate the power of a popular upsurge. We need to keep up the pressure on the junta on pushing democratic reforms without resorting to a drastic change in our policy of engagement,” said Sinha.
It’s not just oil but the China factor that is the overriding factor for India to stay engaged with the junta as Beijing regards Myanmar as its turf with its investment of over $2 billion in the thriving oil and gas industry in that country.
“We are not in the same league as China. We have no leverage with the junta. Friendship with the world’s largest democracy is a big advantage for the junta. Losing this friendship will be costly for the junta. This is the only lever we have,” Mehta said.
With Beijing’s influence growing in Yangon, India, after years of dilly-dallying, rolled out a red carpet welcome for Myanmar’s military strongman Than Shwe in 2004. This was a far cry from 1993 when it honoured pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi with the prestigious Jawaharlal Nehru Award.