Crucial Phase 1 poll tomorrow; will reflect mood of Muslim voters

By Mumtaz Alam Falahi, TwoCircles.net,

Patna: In the Phase 1 poll for Bihar Assembly, voting will take place in 47 seats tomorrow. The phase is crucial for all parties particularly secular forces as it will set the tone of the voting pattern, and reflect the mood of the Muslim community that dominates in majority of seats in this phase.

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As all major alliances/parties have fielded Muslim candidates in 25 seats – where the community constitutes more than 20% population – the division of votes is likely and it will benefit JDU-BJP combine which has fielded Muslim candidates in only 5 seats. On 24 seats there is more than one Muslim candidate. The lowest number of Muslim candidates is in Forbesganj (35.15% Muslim voters) in Araria district where only one Muslim candidate Kafil Ahmed is contesting on the BSP ticket. The highest number is in Bahadurganj (69.20%) in Kishanganj where out of total 16 candidates 11 are Muslims.

The phase covers four of seven minority concentration districts in Bihar, and thus will reflect the negative impact of the Ayodhya verdict.

Patna-based social activist Nayyar Fatmi says the Phase 1 is crucial for democratic forces as well as for the community that wants to strengthen secular forces. The phase is important for the community also because they have been elected from these areas in the past.

Fatmi, however, does not rule out division of secular votes. “In the recent past Hindu votes have got polarized so Muslims should vote unitedly, otherwise they will lose.” Muslim votes will divide as many parties have fielded candidates at same seats.
If Ayodhya verdict will play any role in the election, Fatmi says: The verdict has annoyed Muslims and they are moving away from the Congress; thus RJD-LJP alliance may get edge.

Senior journalist Ajay Kumar, who runs popular Bihar Times news portal, also says the Phase 1 is key for all parties.

“The Phase 1 is crucial as whoever gets lead in this phase will likely to hold it through all phases,” says Kumar. The phase is significant also because “it will reflect the voting behavior of the minority community who dominate in majority of seats in this phase.”

In his view Ayodhya verdict will affect both JDU and Congress equally. “To some extent Ayodhya verdict will affect both Congress and JDU. This is why Advani and other BJP leaders were kept out of the Phase 1 which is dominated by Muslim areas,” Kumar says.

Asked if the anger of Upper Castes against the Nitish Kumar government still persists, Kumar says: “Yes, they are still angry with the Nitish government.” But he adds that these castes have not many choices. “They will prefer Congress and at places where there is no suitable Congress candidate they will vote for NDA,” Kumar says.

Phase 1 seats with more than 20% Muslim voters