By Soroor Ahmed, TwoCircles.net,
Though Left Front was routed in West Bengal after 34 long years of power, yet against the general perception it almost managed to hold on Kerala, where it fell just two short of half way mark. On the other hand in Tamil Nadu it contested election in alliance with victorious AIADMK and ended up doing well.
True Nandigram, Singur, arm-twisting by cadres and incumbency factor went heavily against the Left in West Bengal yet it is also a fact that no party or group can go on ruling for ever. But what prompts the Left to ponder and re-draw its policies and strategies is the manner in which it suffered humiliating defeat with even the respected chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee losing to his one time Chief Secretary, Manish Gupta of the Trinamool Congress in Jadavpur constituency.
BJP senior leader L. K. Advani at a conference in Patna last year [TCN Photo]
What most media-analysts and public opinion makers have failed to discuss is the mess in which the BJP is finding itself after the Assembly election in five states.
Out of 824 Assembly constituencies––West Bengal (294), Tamil Nadu (234), Kerala (140), Assam (126) and Puducherry (30)––which went to poll the BJP won just five seats.
In the post-Babri Masjid demolition years nothing was so bad for the Hindutva Brigade as the result in these five states. The BJP failed to capitalize on the scams like the one in 2G Spectrum, Commonwealth Games, Adarsh Colony etc. The AIADMK is the only beneficiary in Tamil Nadu while in the rest Congress––save in Puducherry––or its alliance managed to win.
Even when the counting was going on in West Bengal and early indication suggested that the BJP is ahead in at least four Assembly constituencies Rajya Sabha MP of the BJP and editor of The Pioneer, Chandan Mitra, was heard telling a news channel that his party may win six seats. The final score was a big zero in that state as in three others.
Only in Assam the BJP managed to win five seats––down from 10 last time. This happened when there was fear of division of Muslim votes because of the presence of Congress as well as All India United Democratic Front (AUDF), which won quite a few seats.
In Assam the AGP too came down from 24 to 10 while the BJP is facing a virtual decimation. The Congress’ tally jumped from 58 to 78.
True, the BJP leadership may defend its poor performance by stating that there was nothing at stake for them in these states––which do not form the Hindi heartland of India––yet the truth is that party leadership was confident of opening account in almost all the states and doing well in Assam.
That is not all. The BJP had lost both Mamata Banerjee and Jayalalithaa, the two woman leaders of mass appeal, for good. Till a few years back Trinamool Congress and AIADMK were part of the National Democratic Alliance. With Mamata cementing her alliance with the Congress and Jayalalithaa tilting towards Left and not the BJP in her own state there is little which Lal Krishna Advani and company can hope in the 2014 parliamentary election.
With Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik of Orissa snapping his ties with the NDA before the last Lok Sabha election leaving the saffron party in the lurch the BJP is once again fast becoming untouchable. Before 1996 only Shiv Sena and Akali Dal were its allies.
True, Janata Dal (United) is a strong partner in Bihar and the BJP too did very well in the last year’s Assembly election winning 91 out of 102 seats yet the fact is that Nitish Kumar’s presence as the chief minister does not give them ample opportunity to manoeuvre. The Janata Dal (United) would always remain the major alliance partner while the BJP will have to play second fiddle with fewer number of seats. In such a situation there is always a lurking fear in the BJP camp that Nitish may do Naveen if its graph goes down further at the national level.